Obama's Jobless 'Recovery' And Poll Slide

Very enlightening:

In January, President Obama pressed for an $800 billion economic "stimulus" package to turn the economy around. Though the bill largely consisted of increased spending on traditional liberal priorities, the President claimed that it would "create or save" 3.5 million jobs. The President's economic advisors predicted that unemployment would rise to 9 percent by 2010 if Congress did not pass the stimulus bill, but that with the stimulus unemployment would stay below 8 percentage points.

Congress passed the stimulus bill in February 2009 and the President has repeated his claims. President Obama recently said that the stimulus bill has already created or saved 150,000 new jobs and that it will "create or save" another 600,000 jobs by the end of the summer. Asked when the public should begin to judge the effects of the stimulus, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said "I think we should begin to judge it now."

In that case, the stimulus must be judged a failure. The figure above shows the projections the administration made in January with and without the stimulus bill, and the actual unemployment rate since then. Unemployment has risen not only above what the President's advisors predicted would happen if the stimulus passed, but above what they estimated would occur without the stimulus. By the President's own measure, the stimulus has failed. The promised benefits from the $800 billion in additional federal spending and debt remain invisible.

Since Obama has just officially taken responsibility for the economy, this is now his problem to deal with.  I suspect these numbers are a large part of the reason for his plummeting poll numbers:

Rasmussen's new poll, taken before the release of June's unemployment numbers, shows significant slippage for Barack Obama on the economy, his central issue.  Only 42% of American voters give him excellent or good marks on handling the economy, the lowest ratings he has yet received.  His personal approval rate has fallen to 53%, and the "passion index" has dropped to -2:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 33% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-five percent (35%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. This is the third straight day the Approval Index has been below zero (see trends).

A Rasmussen video report notes that 42% now give the President good or excellent marks for handling the economy . That's his lowest rating to date

The demographics are dismal for him, too:

Only the youngest voters support him on fiscal policy, and only barely, 52%-46%.  Every other age demographic above 30 years of age has majorities now showing disapproval.  Independents have begun to run away in massive numbers; they now oppose him 75%-23%, a huge break away from Obama and a sign that his supposed moderate stances have been exposed as shams.  Every income level except the lowest also has majorities disapproving of his handling of the economy.  Voters outside the "political class" oppose Obama 65%-33%.

Look for him to ramp up the crisis-talk to get his last major reforms -- cap-n-tax and socialized health care -- pushed through while he still has a pretense of support.  It's time to buckle up for a fight.

There's my two cents.