With the news that the final vote may not occur until the beginning of next year, John Pitney Jr. fact checks the timeframe:
From Chuck Todd's interview with President Obama, November 18:
TODD: You gonna sign health care before the state of the union?
OBAMA: I expect so.
TODD: But obviously not the end of the year at this point?
OBAMA: You will not hear that from me.
TODD: You're not ready to say that?
OBAMA: Absolutely not.
Of course, for the entirety of the 9 months before that, Obama has been chanting incessantly about this being so urgent that it had to be done this year. Hmmm...maybe it's not so urgent after all...?
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell offers this summary which would be a great bullet point list of the worst offenses in the bill:
The only way the Dems are going to be able to pay for this vast spending program is to raise taxes...big time. Americans for Tax Reform lists all of the tax increases that will hit your pocketbook if this becomes law. It may seem annoying or excessive to list all of these, but I believe it is critical for people to understand just how much their taxes will increase as a result of this supposedly budget neutral debacle, so here you go:The cost curve goes UP
— “Under the legislation, federal outlays for health
care would increase during the 2010–2019 period, as would the federal budgetary commitment to health care.” (page 6)Deficit reduction?
— While Democrats will point to $127 billion in possible deficit reduction, that is made possible in part by delaying the benefits until the fifth year of the 10-year budget window. And even then, the $127 billion is LESS than the deficit that was already spent in October of this year. In other words, any possible savings over 10 years of this bill are already erased by the deficit spending of last month alone.
— And remember, CBO predicts that the 2019 deficit will be $722 billion. So their projected deficit reduction, as uncertain as it is, over the second 10 years won’t erase even the 10th year’s deficit.
Delayed costs
— To make costs appear smaller, major provisions of the plan are pushed back an additional year—to 2014
“Starting in 2014, the legislation would…” (page 4)
Government plan would have higher premiums
— “CBO’s assessment is that a public plan paying negotiated rates would attract a broad network of providers but would typically have premiums that were somewhat higher than the average premiums for the private plans in the exchanges.” (page 9)
Effect of the Medicare cuts
— “Whether such a reduction in the growth rate could be achieved through greater efficiencies in the delivery of health care or would reduce access to care or diminish the quality of care is unclear.” (Page 17)
The basics
— Spending: The actual spending in the bill is $1.2 trillion and the cost of the bill is $2.5 trillion over 10 years of full implementation (2014-2023).
— Taxes Increases: Taxes will go up $493.6 billion—nearly half a trillion dollars.
Ready or not, here come the tax increases. For small businesses and people who work in small businesses, you're going to be hit especially hard. With tax increases like this, and mandates that will force them to pay the increased costs, jobs will be lost.Individual Mandate Tax (Page 324/Sec. 1501/$8 bil): Starting in 2014, anyone not buying “qualifying” health insurance must pay an income surtax according to the following schedule (capped at 8 percent of income):
Single Single +1 Single +2 2014 $95 $190 $285 2015 $350 $700 $1050 2016, etc. $750 $1500 $2250
Exemptions for religious objectors, undocumented immigrants, prisoners, those earning less than the poverty line, members of Indian tribes, and hardship cases (determined by HHS).
Employer Mandate Tax (Page 348/Sec. 1513/$28 bil): If an employer does not offer health coverage, and at least one employee qualifies for a health tax credit, the employer must pay an additional non-deductible tax of $750 for all full-time employees. Applies to all employers with 50 or more employees.
If the employer requires a waiting period to enroll in coverage of 30-60 days, there is a $400 tax per employee ($600 if the period is 60 days or longer).
Excise Tax on Comprehensive Health Insurance Plans (Page 1979/Sec. 9001/$149.1 bil): Starting in 2013, new 40 percent excise tax on “Cadillac” health insurance plans ($8500 single/$23,000 family). Higher threshold ($9850 single/$26,000 family) for early retirees and high-risk professions. CPI +1 percentage point indexed.
From 2013-2015, the 17 highest-cost states are 120% of this level.
Employer Reporting of Insurance on W-2 (Page 1996/Sec. 9002/Min$): Preamble to taxing health benefits on individual tax returns.
Medicine Cabinet Tax (Page 1997/Sec. 9003/$5 bil): No longer allowable to use health savings account (HSA), flexible spending account (FSA), or health reimbursement (HRA) pre-tax dollars to purchase non-prescription, over-the-counter medicines (except insulin)
HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike (Page 1998/Sec. 9004/$1.3 bil): Increases additional tax on non-medical early withdrawals from an HSA from 10 to 20 percent, disadvantaging them relative to IRAs and other tax-advantaged accounts, which remain at 10 percent.FSA Cap (Page 1999/Sec. 9005/$14.6 bil): Imposes cap on FSAs of $2500 (now unlimited).
Corporate 1099-MISC Information Reporting (Page 1999/Sec. 9006/$17.1 bil): Requires businesses to send 1099-MISC information tax forms to corporations (currently limited to individuals), a huge compliance burden for small employers
Excise Tax on Charitable Hospitals (page 2001/Sec. 9007/Min$): $50,000 per hospital if they fail to meet new "community health assessment needs," "financial assistance," and "billing and collection" rules set by HHS.
Tax on Innovator Drug Companies (Page 2010/Sec. 9008/ $22.2 bil): $2.3 billion annual tax on the industry imposed relative to share of sales made that year.
Tax of Medical Device Manufacturers (Page 2020/Sec. 9009/$19.3 bil): $2 billion annual tax on the industry imposed relative to shares of sales made that year. Exempts items retailing for <$100. Tax on Health Insurers (Page 2026/Sec. 9010/$60.4 bil): $6.7 billion annual tax on the industry imposed relative to health insurance premiums collected that year.
Eliminate tax deduction for employer-provided retirement Rx drug coverage in coordination with Medicare Part D (Page 2034/Sec. 9012/$5.4 bil)
Raise "Haircut" for Medical Itemized Deduction from 7.5% to 10% of AGI (Page 2034/Sec. 9013/$15.2 bil) : Waived for 65+ taxpayers in 2013-2016 only$500,000 Annual Executive Compensation Limit for Health Insurance Executives (Page 2035/Sec. 9014/$0.6 bil)
Hike in Medicare Payroll Tax (Page 2040/Sec. 9015/$53.8 bil): Current law and changes:
Wages (Employer/Employee) Self-Employment Net Income Current Law and New Rate on First $200,000 ($250,000 MFJ) 1.45%/1.45% 2.9% New Rate on Amount Which Exceeds $200,000 ($250,000 MFJ) 1.45%/1.95% 3.4%
The 0.5% new rate addition is not deductible for the self-employment tax adjustment.
Blue Cross/Blue Shield Tax Hike (Page 2044/Sec. 9016/$0.4 bil): The special tax deduction in current law for Blue Cross/Blue Shield companies would only be allowed if 85 percent or more of premium revenues are spent on clinical services
Tax on Cosmetic Medical Procedures (Page 2045/Sec. 9017/$5.8 bil): New 5% excise tax on elective cosmetic surgery to be paid by the surgery patient.
Keith Hennessey goes into a tremendous amount of detail on the tax increases, so if you want to understand the guts, this is a must-read.
Legal Insurrection asks who's standing up for the 255 million people in America who do have health care insurance -- the vast majority of which are perfectly happy with it -- that will see skyrocketing costs and plummeting quality, and a government takeover of their own health care decisions. That's a very good question.
This bill would also expand the welfare rolls by 15 million people. Also, we'll be paying taxes on this program for 5 years before anyone gets any benefit out of it.
Sen. Tom Coburn is looking likely to require a reading of the bill, something he or any other Senator has a legal right to do. At a normal reading pace, this would probably require 30-40 hours of reading, and provide at least a bit more time for people to analyze and publicize this bill. Let's hope he follows through.
The Dems are trumpeting the initial scoring of the CBO as costing less than $900 billion and decreasing the deficit. Not so fast, my friends:
Basically, the Dems have split out a $210 billion chunk of cost that would add payments to doctors using Medicare because they have no other way to pay for it, and not pulling it out would prevent any hope of even appearing deficit neutral. Just like the House did, the Senate is extending one hand and hiding the other. Think about it this way - they're essentially maxing out a credit card with a limit of $10,000 and claiming to only spend $10k while hoping you don't notice this second credit card they've maxed out with an additional $5,000. It's all debt that you and I and our children and grandchildren will have to pay back; it doesn't really matter that it's debt on two cards rather than one, does it?The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that House Democrats' changes to the health care system would add $89 billion to federal deficits over 10 years.
At the request of Rep. Paul Ryan, the CBO analyzed the budgetary effects when the health care legislation that passed in the House earlier this month is combined with the costs of the $210 billion so-called "doc fix" bill that would prevent scheduled cuts to physician payments under Medicare.
It found that the bill would add $89 billion to deficits from 2010 to 2019, and increase deficits even more over time.
And that's after all of the budgetary tricks that they're using to hide the true costs, as Yuval Levin points out:
It is fiscal madness, for one thing. CBO’s 10-year projection scores its cost at $848 billion, since CBOThere are two bombshells in there. First, this plan will increase your taxes immediately, but no benefits will be implemented for years (2013). Second, if you actually look at the 10-year period of time from when the benefits begin, the cost of this bill is three times higher what the Dems are saying. Just an illustration of how dishonest these Democrats are being, as well as how expensive this legislation will be. Oh, and by the way, the White House supports this cheap slight-of-hand.is required to use a 10-year window that starts at enactment and the bill is designed to start collecting taxes well before it starts spending money. If you look at the first 10 years of actual implementation, when both the spending and the taxes are in effect, the 10-year cost is $2.5 trillion.
Death panels will, in fact, exist according to the Senate bill, just like in the House bill. If you doubt that, just ask our friends in Britain how that's working out for them.
Here's the key in regard to the Democrats who will have to vote on this thing:
Is it as big of a risk for moderates as failing to pass a bill will be for Obama and the progressives? That’s the big question. Will people get angry enough over a new government entitlement that purports to solve a real issue for many Americans — the increasing cost of health care? Never mind, for the moment, that it doesn’t actually solve that problem, but makes it worse. Most won’t see that until 2013 at the earliest, by which point it will be far too late.And hey, how about criminalizing health care? The House did it; the Senate is doing it, too:
The “reformers” in the White House and the House of Representatives have made all too plain their vision of the federal government’s power to coerce individual Americans to make the “right” health-care choices. The highly partisan bill the House just passed includes severe penalties for individuals who do not purchase insurance approved by the federal government. By neatly tucking these penalties into the IRS code, the so-called reformers have brought them under the tax-enforcement power of the federal government.That's right. If you don't want to pay the hyper-inflated costs of the newly-taxed health care system the Dems are forcing onto you, you may be subject to fines and jail time. By law, enforcement officials will be incentivized to find and hammer such 'violators'. And, even after all that, this plan still won't insure everyone as the Dems are saying.
The Congressional Budget Office stated on October 29 that the House bill would generate $167 billion in revenue from “penalty payments.” Individual Americans are expected to pay $33 billion of these penalties, with employers paying the rest. Former member of Congress and Heritage Foundation fellow Ernest Istook has concluded that for this revenue goal to be met, 8 to 14 million individual Americans will have to be fined over the next ten years, quite an incentive for federal bureaucrats.
Who will be included among those subject to civil and criminal penalties if this provision becomes law? For starters, any family of four whose combined income in 2016 is above $102,100 ($88,200 in today’s dollars) and that chooses to pay all its medical expenses out of pocket rather than pay the $15,000 a year that the CBO says will be the lowest-priced insurance option for families. Also any healthy twentysomething in a city with high costs of living who chooses to take the risk of going uninsured. And by outlawing the popular high-deductible plans that are currently among the lowest-cost health-insurance solutions, the new law would only increase the number of Americans on the rolls of those who cannot afford insurance. The CBO itself estimates that at least 18 million Americans will still be uninsured in 2016.
And then, of course, there is abortion. The House bill used taxpayer money to fund abortions, but the Stupak amendment supposedly took it out. We all expect that amendment to be stripped out later in the legislative process, but no such provision was included in the Senate bill. In fact, it is quite the opposite:
This country is now majority pro-life. This is probably the stickiest part of the government takeover, and will probably be the biggest minefield for Reid, even bigger than the gaudy spending going on. The fact that every taxpayer in America will be required to fund abortions on a monthly basis. That's not going to go over well...if Americans know about it.Beginning on line 7, p. 118, section 1303 under “Voluntary Choice of Coverage of Abortion Services” the Health and Human Services Secretary is given the authority to determine when abortion is allowed under the government-run health plan. Leader Reid’s plan also requires that at least one insurance plan offered in the Exchange covers abortions (line 13, p. 120).
What is even more alarming is that a monthly abortion premium will be charged of all enrollees in the government-run health plan. It’s right there beginning on line 11, page 122, section 1303, under “Actuarial Value of Optional Service Coverage.” The premium will be paid into a U.S. Treasury account – and these federal funds will be used to pay for the abortion services.
As with the House, the Senate bill is a horrendous, destructive, and foul takeover of health care by a cruel, faceless, inefficient federal government. The difference is that Pelosi could afford to lose almost 40 votes and still get it passed. In the Senate, Reid needs literally every Democrat and Independent in order to pass it, and that's a much taller order. The question is: will the rank-and-file Democrats in the Senate fall in line with Obama's plans, or will they try to keep their job? They can't have both, because the poll numbers for both Obama and his health care 'reform' are dropping through the cellar, and even a prominent Democrat strategist has called Obama's influence in races around the country 'beyond radioactive'. Ouch! One example is Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (emphasis mine):
A Zogby Poll this week illustrates the stark choice facing Senate Democrats as they have to decide whether or not to vote for ObamaCare. The poll shows that Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, high up on the list of vulnerable Senate Democrats seeking reelection in 2010, literally faces a choice between being reelected and voting for the bill.Ace of Spades puts it this way:The Zogby Poll shows Arkansans opposed to the Obama/Reid bill by 28-64, with 50 percent "strongly opposed" to the legislation. To swim in the face of such a current of public opinion is risky business for a U.S. senator.
Lincoln's most likely Republican opponent, state Sen. Gilbert Bennett, is hot on her heels in the poll, trailing by only 41-39. But asked who they would support if Lincoln votes for ObamaCare, Arkansas voters switch to Bennett, giving him a 49-36 victory. That Lincoln goes from two points ahead to 13 points behind over one Senate vote illustrates the potency of the opposition to healthcare changes.
If you're a soldier charging a hill, it's one thing to know that your group will take, say, 30% casualties. It's a different thing if you know in advance that you, specifically, will be one of the dead of war.Barack Obama has made it clear that he expects Congress to commit suicide to pass his radical Leftist agenda. Will they comply?
So, here's where things stand. Harry Reid has scheduled a vote for the official introduction of this bill for Saturday night. That's right, the Democrat leadership is going to take the first vote on one of the most egregiously overspending, economy busting, freedom squashing, fundamentally altering, government expansion legislation in American history after a mere 10 hours of debate despite massive public opposition. If the Senate votes to proceed, then the debate and amendments process will begin, and eventually there will be a final vote on the bill (probably late this year or early 2010). Here's why the initial vote (just to open debate) is critical tomorrow night:
...if Reid gets the necessary 60 votes on Saturday’s motion to bring the bill to the Senate floor in its current form, that the abortion language will not get changed. Once the bill is on the floor, it would take 60 votes to amend it, and there aren’t that many pro-life votes in the Senate. That’s why [Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska] said it was crucial to stop the bill from moving to the floor in the first place.Basically, the bill as introduced will require a full 60 votes to change it later on. Right now, all the bad abortion stuff is in there, so if the bill as it stands now is approved for open debate on Saturday night, it will keep that same bad abortion stuff because there aren't 60 votes to pull it out later with an amendment.“The real key vote here is on the motion to proceed if you’re pro-life,” he said.
This is where you and I come in. We need to call our Senators TODAY and tell them you understand that a vote to open debate on this bill right now is a vote to keep the monthly abortion funding with taxpayer dollars in it. Tell them to oppose this bill, starting with this very first vote on Saturday night. This is critical, because since 1999, we see that 97.6% of all bills that are passed through the motion to proceed eventually get passed into law. Bottom line: a vote for the motion to proceed on Saturday night is a vote for ObamaKennedyDeathCare.
There are a multitude of reasons to oppose this bill. The House has already passed their version, so the last big battlefield is the Senate. If there was ever a time for you to place two phone calls, it is now. Call your Senators TODAY. If enough people call in, we could possibly derail this government takeover train before it gets going.
If this thing is passed into law, it will change America in fundamental ways that will blow your mind. In short, the United States of America as we know it and as we have grown up with...will cease to exist.
More updates as they become available.
There's my two cents.
Related Reading:
The five flaws of the Reid health bill
Harrycare is a rotten deal
How mandates kill jobs and punish poor workers
The Senate health bill: Taxpayer funded abortions
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