Quick Special Election Update

Just a few quick thoughts on today's special elections in various areas around the country.

The races for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia, and the NY23 House race are more or less being positioned by the Right as a bellwether for how the 2010 elections will go.  The Left, on the other hand, is doing its best to downplay the results (mostly because they're probably going to lose races they would normally win), and especially to frame it as anything but a commentary on Obama's radical government-expanding policies.

Unfortunately for the Left, the facts (as usual) show them as being full of...well, something.  For example:

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) previews the spin on Fox, when asked about Obama's participation in the Deeds campaign in Virginia:

"Obama wasn't in Virginia this weekend, or even recently."

Mary Katharine Ham bursts the bubble:

Except for that time five days ago.

DAMN THOSE FACTS!!!  Also, a quick look at the ads being run in recent days shows that Obama is, in fact, plastered all over this race.

The level-headed Jay Cost at RealClearPolitics.com suggests that these elections don't really matter a hill of beans outside of their entertainment value:

A year is a long time in American politics. In November, 2008 Barack Obama won the presidency of the United States. A year prior, he was trailing Hillary Clinton badly and under fire from his own supporters for not wasting his money as HRC was. A year before that, few people even knew who he was. In November, 1991 George H.W. Bush's job approval stood at 62%. A year later a folksy governor from Arkansas had unseated him. In November, 1928 Herbert Hoover was elected to the third consecutive Republican landslide in what really looked to be an enduring majority. A year later...well, you get the idea.

So, am I interested in the results of NY-23? You bet I am. But I'm a political junkie, and I find this stuff highly entertaining. That doesn't mean that it carries with it any particular meaning.

That's a very good point, but Powerline hits closer to the bulls-eye, I think:

...the views of voters on election day 2009 don't necessarily reflect what their views will be on election day 2010, when it really matters. If the economy rebounds strongly, the sentiment of voters a year from now may well be closer to the sentiment of a year ago when Republicans were trounced. If the economy is thought to be in the dumps, the Democrats will look back fondly on the state of play in November 2009.

If today's election have any significance, beyond the possibility that they will boost GOP morale, it is because the political class probably has even less perspective than your average political junkie. Thus, Republican victories in the three high profile races, or even two of the three, might spook some Democrats into backing away from President Obama's most controversial legislative initiatives.

Perception is reality in this case, and big GOP wins today will create a whole lot of perception, which is most certainly backed up by poll numbers showing the radical Leftist agenda sagging with each new entitlement and spending binge.  It really is a small blip on the national political radar, but it could become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy...if both sides believe it to be one.  Thus, the immense amounts of spin from all directions.  Fun, huh?

Regardless, it should be a very interesting 24 hours.

On a side note, it really is amazing that the Right is winning or competing in most of these races; not only are the Dems calling up their thug ACORN reserves, but they're also resorting to actual gang-bangers to go door-to-door.  Nice.  I'm sure there won't be ANY intimidation going on, especially with the Obama administration being so quick to crack down on that sort of thing.

There's my two cents.