ObamaKennedyDeathCare Gets Fleshed Out A Bit

Now that some bills are actually being completed, we're starting to get a better picture of exactly how ObamaKennedyDeathCare will shake out. Up until this point, we have been talking about either the House bill (HR3200), or the general concepts spoken about by Obama and the other Democrats. Now we're getting some substance to dissect.

It's just as bad as we predicted.

The biggest new plan out there right now was put forward by Sen. Max Baucus, so let's dig into that a bit. First, the good news: the CBO says it would cut the deficit by $49 billion over 10 years. Of course, that's accomplished by making some major assumptions on savings, and we all know how likely the federal government is to actually achieve savings...and, of course, given the multi-trillion dollar deficits Obama has rung up, a piddly $49 billion is about as meaningful as a fart in a hurricane. But, it's at least a step in the right philosophical direction. And, it doesn't explicitly include a public option.

But, the bad news more than outweighs the good. The bottom line is that it'll still cost almost $900 billion, it would form co-ops that would essentially serve the same function because they would "[force] insurers to participate in the exchanges, [specify] minimum benefits that the plans must offer, and [put] restrictions on how much they can charge customers." It also includes incentives for people to drop their current coverage, which will only hasten the shift to the co-ops, and it would level a huge tax on the middle class and current union members with gold-plated coverage, as well as cuts to Medicare. Bottom line: no deal. Go here for the details.

On the subject of the middle class tax increase, a Democrat sounds the warning:

It's not every day that you hear a Democratic senator charge that a fellow Democrat is proposing to raise taxes on the middle class, but that is what happened on Tuesday when Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., ripped into the health-care bill developed by Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mt., the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.

The Baucus proposal would impose, starting in 2013, a 35 percent excise tax on insurance companies for "high-cost plans" -- defined as those above $8,000 for individuals and $21,000 for family plans.

...

The West Virginia Democrat worries ... that a lot of middle class workers, like the coal miners in his state, will end up facing "a big, big tax" under the Baucus bill because they currently enjoy generous employer-provided health care benefits which they receive tax free.

Hey, it's great to see some actual representation for a change! Still, this must be bad if a fellow Dem is bashing it.

But this particular plan isn't likely to go forward smoothly. In fact, none of the Republicans on the committee -- and these are not exactly hardcore conservatives, mind you -- are backing the plan. Not Enzi, nor Snowe or Grassley. Without that, Democrats will be forced to use reconciliation, especially since one can assume Rockefeller and possibly other Dems will oppose it as well. The GOP is showing every sign of achieving almost universal opposition.

The trade-off is a tricky one - in order to attract a few Reps, he'll likely lose a few liberals, and vice versa. But reconciliation has its own significant risks:

Does this mean Harry Reid will use the “reconciliation” process? The Democrats are threatening it, but it’s a strategy fraught with risks. All it takes is one Senator to go rogue on the floor and start withholding unanimous consent, and the Senate grinds to a halt. Reid’s already complaining about Republicans slowing down the process, but he won’t be able to get anything done at all once a few Republicans begin demanding full bill readings, votes for process, and so on.

Expect the Democrats to go back to the drawing board in both chambers. The longer these versions are on the table, the more unpopular they become.

Indeed, the polls now show ObamaKennedyDeathCare is more unpopular than ever:

One week after President Obama’s speech to Congress, opposition to his health care reform plan has reached a new high of 55%. The latest Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll shows that just 42% now support the plan, matching the low first reached in August.

The ludicrous idea that the Dems have most recently pushed -- that all opposition is based solely on racism -- has flopped mightily, as only 12% of the country agrees with it. I guess now we know the number of people in the country who will cry racism at anything and everything, no matter how illogical or irrational it may be.

As it turns out, ObamaKennedyDeathCare will only be good for lawyers, who also just happen to be the biggest contributors to Democrat coffers.

So, now that some actual bills are coming out, we'll have a lot more red meat to discuss on this topic. More updates as they become available.

There's my two cents.


Related Reading:
Flawed Baucus bill is not the roadmap
State-run media begins the trashing of Joe Wilson
The real cause of health care cost inflation