Events are fast pushing Israel toward a pre-emptive military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, probably by next spring. That strike could well fail. Or it could succeed at the price of oil at $300 a barrel, a Middle East war, and American servicemen caught in between. So why is the Obama administration doing everything it can to speed the war process along?
By dropping Iran from the agenda of the upcoming U.N. Security Council meeting, Obama is effectively saying he doesn't think Iran's nuclear ambitions are a problem, and SecDef Gates has publicly stated he opposes preemptive strikes on Iran. And, as we've discussed before, Obama's cabinet and advisory staff is littered with Israel haters. Thus:
...the conclusion among Israelis is that the Obama administration won't lift a finger to stop Iran, much less will the "international community." So Israel has pursued a different strategy, in effect seeking to goad the U.S. into stopping, or at least delaying, an Israeli attack by imposing stiff sanctions and perhaps even launching military strikes of its own.
Thus, unlike Israel's air strike against Iraq's reactor in 1981 or Syria's in 2007, both of which were planned in the utmost secrecy, the Israelis have gone out of their way to advertise their fears, purposes and capabilities. They have sent warships through the Suez Canal in broad daylight and conducted widely publicized air-combat exercises at long range. They have also been unusually forthcoming in their briefings with reporters, expressing confidence at every turn that Israel can get the job done.
The problem, however, is that the administration isn't taking the bait, and one has to wonder why. Perhaps it thinks its diplomacy will work, or that it has the luxury of time, or that it can talk the Israelis out of attacking. Alternatively, it might actually want Israel to attack without inviting the perception that it has colluded with it. Or maybe it isn't really paying attention.
But Israel is paying attention. And the longer the U.S. delays playing hardball with Iran, the sooner Israel is likely to strike.
I think Obama really does believe his 'negotiations' will work. He's ridiculously naive and unprepared to deal with radical Islamic terrorist states, perhaps even more so than most liberals because he appears to be infatuated with his own hyper-egotistical image, and he seems to believe the nauseating panderment his sycophants shower upon him. Not a good combo.
Israel expert Joel Rosenberg offers this analysis:
...because Washington and the Western powers are doing nothing decisive to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, there is an increasingly likelihood that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will feel the need to matters into his own hands, and soon. Iran now has enough enriched uranium (that we know about) to build at least two nuclear weapons. If the Russians deliver and install the new S-300 state-of-the-art anti-aircraft missiles in Iran then the Israelis ability to decimate Iran nuclear facilities will be dramatically diminished. These are likely the issues Netanyahu discussed in the Kremlin last Monday. So, short of divine intervention and/or a dramatic turnabout in Western resolve and action, we may very well be looking at an Israeli preemptive strike in 2010.
So, Obama's inaction is actually stoking the flames of war because he doesn't understand that area of the world. But there's more from Stephens:
...it is not in the U.S. interest that Israel be the instrument of Iran's disarmament. For starters, its ability to do so is iffy: Israeli strategists are quietly putting it about that even a successful attack may have to be repeated a few years down the road as Iran reconstitutes its capacity. For another thing, Iran could respond to such a strike not only against Israel itself, but also U.S targets in Iraq and the Persian Gulf.
But most importantly, it is an abdication of a superpower's responsibility to outsource matters of war and peace to another state, however closely allied. President Obama has now ceded the driver's seat on Iran policy to Prime Minister Netanyahu.
He's giving away the standard of America being the leader of the free world (again). He's abdicating the responsibility that comes with the office of the Presidency. Sadly, this is typical Obama - he likes to take the second crack at things. He did it when Russia invaded Georgia last year. And, he's been apologizing for everything about America since long before he took office. What's more, he's no friend of Israel, and Israelis know it. Even if he were in the driver's seat in this situation, it's not clear whether he would back them up or not.
But it gets even more precarious with this article in the Jerusalem Post:
Israel will be compelled to attack Iran's nuclear facilities if Western powers do not impose serious sanctions against Teheran by the end of 2009, former deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh said on Wednesday."We cannot live under the shadow of an Iran with nuclear weapons," he was quoted as telling Reuters in an interview on a visit to the UK. "By the end of the year, if there is no agreement on crippling sanctions aimed at this regime, we will have no choice."
Sneh reportedly stressed that a military strike would be "the very, very last resort. But ironically it is our best friends and allies who are pushing us into a corner where we would have no option but to do it."
"I wonder if they will [put a tougher sanctions regime in place] quickly enough. If not, we are compelled to take action."
Keep your eyes on this area of the world. It affects everyone else, and oil prices are just the start. Much is at stake.
There's my two cents.
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