Thursday, November 13, 2008

Is The GOP Just Too Darned Christian?

This is a great bit of logic from The Jawa Report:

A lot of the "reformist" commentators, including David Frum, have decided that the GOP lost the last two elections because the party is just too influenced by Christians. They argue that the party's Christian stances on social issues have alienated the angry "moderates," who are, according to these commentators, generally pro-choice and in favor of gay marriage. Thus, the GOP must, in particular, do at least the following things to reach these angry socially liberal "moderate" voters:

Soften the GOP's opposition to gay marriage
Soften the GOP's support for restrictions on abortion
Unfortunately, these reformist commentators rarely offer anything in the way of actual evidence to support either proposition. It is enough, apparently, that these individual commentators are annoyed by the social issues, and that millions of other people feel the same way. That may be enough evidence to convince them of the proposition that gay marriage and abortion are costing the Republicans electoral wins, but it's not enough to convince me.

Here's my challenge to any "reformists" who are arguing that the Republicans must jettison the "social issues" in order to win elections in the future:

Which Republican candidates lost in 2006 and/or 2008 because they were too pro-life and/or too opposed to gay marriage
I'm pretty sure any honest answer starts with "Well, none, but...", in which case, SHUT UP.

If there were Republicans who lost their seats over abortion or gay marriage, let's hear their names.

It's not enough, by the way, that certain pro-life or anti-gay-marriage candidates lost. That's a mere correlation, which supports nothing. Using this logic, one could "prove" that Republicans are losing elections because they wear clothes and speak English--because, after all, every single Republican candidate who lost in 2006 and 2008 did both.

I'm challenging the reformists to show me a causation.

If there is no evidence that the presence of factor X is causing problem Y, there is no reason to think that eliminating factor X will remedy problem Y.

Every time a political party gets booted from power, it has to go back to the drawing board.  The first order of business is to figure out why it lost.  Once that is determined, it can then rebuild around those core corrections, and hopefully regain the power it lost.

Right now, the GOP is having to sort out why it lost.  I've mentioned before about the conservative vs. moderate war in the GOP, and this analysis from The Jawa Report fits perfectly with that scenario.  Frum and other moderates don't really have any evidence for their assertion that the GOP is 'too Christian', but they think it should become more moderate anyway.  Jawa's challenge of showing causation rather than correlation is dead on.  I'm from Missouri: show me.

On the other hand, we do have a mountain of good evidence for moderates losing and conservatives winning (even from the Dem side of the house).  This is a no-brainer, but many of the elites and party leaders are of the moderate variety, so it's going to take a bottom-up drive from the mostly-conservative base to push the moderates out of the way in preparation for a conservative rebuilding period.

Here's a good example.  I used to get really long, drawn out colds a couple times a year.  Medicine never seemed to dull the symptoms, and it was very, very aggravating.  A couple years ago, I finally went to the doctor and discovered I actually had allergies.  With the proper allergy medication, the problem is solved.

Politics isn't much different than snot.  Without a correct diagnosis, a cure cannot be administered.  In the case of the GOP, the proper diagnosis is not that there is too much conservatism; it is just the opposite.  There is too much moderation, and too much compromise.  As soon as the party leaders figure this out, we can begin rebuilding for the resurgence of a powerful Republican party that will truly represent most of America, and that will truly benefit all of America.

There's my two cents.

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