The Numbers By Month

Rasmussen:

When you track the President's Job Approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports has compiled the numbers on a full-month basis and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Overall, the number who Strongly Approve has fallen from 43% in January to 30% in August. During that same time frame, the number who Strongly Disapprove has grown from 20% to 39%. Those numbers translate to a Presidential Approval Index that has declined from +23 in January to -9 in August.

Also in August, the President's total approval fell below 50% for the first time.

While opposition to the President's proposed health care reform is partly responsible for the declining approval ratings, the numbers reflect a broader level of frustration. Last fall, during the Bush Administration, voters overwhelmingly opposed the bailout plans for banks but the bailout went ahead. Earlier this year, voters overwhelmingly opposed the federal takeover of General Motors and Chrysler, but they went ahead as well. Two-thirds of American voters (64%) support a law requiring the federal government to sell its interest in GM within one year.

Realistically, no one can tell what will happen next. In the short-term, resolution of the health care legislation may have a significant impact on the President's ratings. Looking further ahead, the economy and federal deficit numbers are likely to set the tone heading into the mid-term elections. Forty percent (40%) of voters see reducing the deficit as the top priority while 21% say health care is number one.

Remember, Obama won the election with 52% of the vote, which means that his current numbers show a big chunk of people who supported him last November no longer do so.  That's big trouble, especially if it continues.

There's my two cents.