Conversations on the Hill this afternoon suggest Harry Reid has done himself some damage with the failed vote on the fix to the Medicare doctor payment formula. He lost significantly more Democrats than he expected, and seemed to lose control of what was in essence the first health care reform vote on the Senate floor.
The Democrats are now arguing that they knew they would lose this vote (though not even Reid is arguing he knew he would lose this badly) but wanted to bring it up so that Republicans could not use the doc fix issue as a killer amendment on the actual health care bill later this year—forcing the Democrats to either vote against it or lose their deficit-neutral CBO score. The idea is that anyone who voted against this bill wouldn’t vote for an amendment later to do the same thing, so this takes such an amendment off the table. If they really believe this, then the Democrats are clearly not prepared for the floor fight to come on health care reform, but I suspect it’s just cover for an embarrassing surprise on the floor.
The problem for Reid is more than substantive—more than unhappy doctors and an unhappy AMA. The biggest problem is the danger of losing the confidence of his Democratic senators. Passing health care reform remains an extremely difficult challenge: there are two Senate bills, with very significant substantive differences between them, which need to be combined, voted on, then merged with an even more different House bill, and voted on again. Each of these votes would require the support of just about every (if not indeed every single) Senate Democrat, and each would be a very tough vote for one or another group in their caucus.Here's a bit of recap from the Senate itself:
Was just talking to a Senate GOP aide who was chortling over Reid's disaster today. Here's his take: The doc fix is usually very popular, but the vote showed that, in the current environment, debt trumps docs. Too many moderate Democrats had already been asked to vote for too much spending, so they balked at this. Reid lost 13 votes in the final act of a slow-rolling debacle that began last week when he confidently predicted Democrats would take up and pass the measure as soon as Monday. Despite his years as a whip, Reid apparently neglected to count the votes on this one. Now he says he'll bring it up after Obamacare passes. But Republicans will likely offer an amendment to include it in the health-care legislation when it gets to the floor, putting Reid and his party in the awkward position of having to turn around and vote against the fix (they can't have it on Obamacare because it would make it even more unaffordable). Also, many journalists will now notice that when Democrats brag about Obamacare being paid for that they really have this $250 billion unfunded expenditure hanging out there. Not a good day for Reid.Still, this is just the first of many battles that the Dems intend to win. We must be prepared for the fight of our lives.
If this new WaPo/ABC poll is any indication, the liberal Left is so desperate to spin ObamaKennedyDeathCare that they're now resorting to outright fabrication of poll results. Hot Air demonstrates (this is long, but great information, and critical to understand):
My first clue that the new WaPo/ABC poll had big problems in its sampling came from question 38 of the raw data released by ABC last night, the generic Congressional ballot. Most polls have that within the margin of error; both Rasmussen and Pew have it at a dead heat. The WaPo/ABC survey has Democrats winning that matchup by twelve points, 51%/39%.
That tends to discredit much of what the Post reports this morning:
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that support for a government-run health-care plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and wins clear majority support from the public.
Americans remain sharply divided about the overall packages moving closer to votes in Congress and President Obama’s leadership on the issue, reflecting the partisan battle that has raged for months over the administration’s top legislative priority. But sizable majorities back two key and controversial provisions: both the so-called public option and a new mandate that would require all Americans to carry health insurance.
Independents and senior citizens, two groups crucial to the debate, have warmed to the idea of a public option, and are particularly supportive if it would be administered by the states and limited to those without access to affordable private coverage.
But in a sign of the fragile coalition politics that influence the negotiations in Congress, Obama’s approval ratings on health-care reform are slipping among his fellow Democrats even as they are solidifying among independents and seniors. Among Democrats, strong approval of his handling of the issue has dropped 15 percentage points since mid-September.The sampling comprises 33% Democrats, as opposed to only 20% Republicans. That thirteen-point spread is two points larger than their September polling, at 32%/21%. More tellingly, it’s significantly larger than their Election Day sample, which included 35% Democrats to 26% Republicans for a gap of nine points, about a third smaller than the gap in this poll. Of course, that’s when they were more concerned about accuracy over political points of view.
Remember when I wrote that poll watchers need to remember the recent Gallup poll on party affiliation? Gallup polled 5,000 adults and found that the gap between Democrats and Republicans had closed to the smallest margin since 2005, six points, and had been reduced more than half since the beginning of the year. For the WaPo/ABC poll, though, their sample gap has increased almost 50% during that time.
Given that skew, it’s hardly surprising that they find a 57% approval rating for Obama, up three points since last month, almost the entirety of the gap increase since the last poll. His 48% tie on health care should be a significant disapproval instead, and the 45%/51% slide on the deficit has probably expanded at the same rate as the deficit in a survey with a realistic sample.
However, even that support seems rather … murky. In question 6, “Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by (Congress) and (the Obama administration)?”, only 45% said they approved, while 48% said they disapproved. The public-option question gets asked in this manner:
8. Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans?I’d call that more than a little biased. The “compete with private insurance” is a political claim by ObamaCare advocates. The private insurance industry competes within itself, just as all markets do. The government plan would not compete, but would undercut prices while getting subsidized on losses, while the same government imposes “fees” and new taxes on insurers. It’s no more “competition” than it would be to have Wal-Mart run the retail business and assess fees on its “competitors” for the privilege of existence.
On that question, the public option gets the exact same numbers as Obama’s approval ratings. Consider the implications of that in regards to this skewed survey.Bottom line: don't believe any poll you see that shows a majority of Americans supporting ObamaKennedyDeathCare. Chances are it's somewhere between grossly misleading and blatant lies. The American people do NOT want this.
On a related note, at least one Senator thinks that the government option is not dead, and that it could happen this way:
Sen. John Thune said on a Wednesday conference call that there is growing momentum behind including a government-run plan in final health care legislation.
"I thought the government plan was dead," Thune said. "I don't think that anymore."
Thune also said that if Democrats have trouble passing a bill through normal means, they may split it into two parts, passing the purely tax and spending measures (such as the expansion of Medicaid) through the reconciliation process where they would only need 51 votes, and the regulatory changes (such as coverage of preexisting conditions) through the traditional process that would require 60. However, he said that such a move would be a last resort if they don't even have the votes to pass something along the lines of the Senate Finance Committee bill, and that they likely couldn't get a government plan through this method.
This is the road map. It'll be interesting to see if they follow it.
Interestingly, the economy is the most important issue to more people than health care and climate change combined. Of course, that makes perfect sense in the real world outside of Washington - without a job, you can't purchase health care, gas, or anything else. Might be something for Congress to keep in mind.
There's my two cents.
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