One of the biggest stories in politics right now is the special election in the 23rd Congressional District in New York. The basics of the situation are that there are three candidates, a Democrat (Bill Owens), a Republican (Dede Scozzafava) and a Conservative Party candidate named Doug Hoffman.
Scozzafava is an extremely liberal woman, even further to the left than Owens. Hoffman is a conservative, and is a very natural fit for the conservative Republican mold. Scozzafava was running neck and neck with Owens for quite some time, but that has changed.
In the past two weeks, Hoffman has experienced a huge surge, overtaking Scozzafava, and even surpassing Owens, as well. Part of this success has been due to a number of high profile endorsements of conservative Republicans, including Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, and many bloggers and pundits. Basically, the only prominent Republican to endorse Scozzafava is Newt Gingrich, and Gingrich has been raked over the coals by conservatives for doing so.
Gingrich more or less suggests that Hoffman can't win, and that it is more important to get a Republican elected than to take a chance of splitting the Right-leaning vote and putting a Democrat into a traditionally Republican seat. He also thinks it could set a bad precedent of allowing third party candidates to pull votes away from the GOP all over the country. While Gingrich raises a valid point, this is a different scenario because it is a special election, and there was no primary process. In New York, the Conservative party is only active when the GOP puts up a liberal candidate that is distinctly not conservative. In a normal election process, Hoffman would have run as a Republican.
The public apparently disagrees with Gingrich, and seems quite willing to accept this loss if it means making a stand on conservative principles. However, that looks increasingly unlikely - Hoffman has now overtaken Owens, and left Scozzafava in a distant third place. Can Hoffman pull off the miracle and actually win against both the Democrat and the Republican?
This election is key for a couple reasons. First, it could forecast just how deep the anti-Democrat sentiment in the country is running right now. This race, along with the New Jersey and Virginia Governor races, will likely be major indicators for the 2010 election. Here, in NY-23, it could also be a major indicator of the direction of the Republican party. Will it go moderate, accepting any Republican as preferable to a Democrat, or will it demand accountability and require a candidate who stands on conservative principles, even if there is a risk of losing the seat altogether?
A recent Gallup poll shows that 40% of Americans consider themselves conservative, while only 20% self-identify as liberals, and only 36% as moderates. Given those numbers, and Hoffman's recent poll surge, his miracle doesn't look so far-fetched...
Regardless, this one should be very interesting to watch.
There's my two cents.
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