DON'T PANIC

For those of you who have been overwhelmed with the constant drumbeat of reports, opinions, and assumptions that Barack Obama cannot possibly lose the election in November, read this:

Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows John McCain leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Barack Obama leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Obama leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that McCain is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in McCain's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Obama because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has [retaken the lead from] McCain, the race is over.

Yes, in principle, McCain could win. ... Obama could be caught shagging an intern. McCain could electrify the country with the greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think McCain will recover. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. ... [L]ook closely at the trends beneath the horse-race numbers, and you'll realize why it's practically impossible to turn those numbers around. Obama doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well.

Can McCain turn himself around? Theoretically, yes. But stupidity and stubbornness are traits. It's unrealistic to expect a person who has just done a series of stupid and stubborn things to stop being stupid and stubborn. It took McCain and his team days to accept that nobody else saw the [economic] controversy the way they did. Their retreat from that ploy raised momentary hopes that they were capable of self-correction—which they promptly dashed by approving a second sarcastic attack ad virtually identical to the one that had just failed.

A candidate who puts pride before prudence, refuses to learn from his mistakes, and is capable of living for days in an alternate political universe can only survive while he's ahead. Once he falls behind, there's no reason to think he's up to the task of correcting his course and regaining control of the race. ... Stick a fork in him. He's done.

Pretty grim predictions, huh?

Now, here's the really interesting part...the above excerpt was actually written in mid-September of 2000 (original link here).  Just swap "Bush" for "McCain" and "Obama" for "Gore".  And look how that 'inevitable' election turned out.

Don't panic.  Just keep spreading the truth.  That's what will ultimately win this election.

There's my two cents.