Friday, December 4, 2009

How 'Bout That New Economic Policy?

Since he can't make any real decisions, and since he clearly is at a loss for any realistically workable economic policy, Barack Obama held a 'jobs summit' earlier this week at the White House.  Due to the fact that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business weren't invited (and hey, why include them? they only represent a few million businesses across the country), or anyone else who didn't looooove his first stimulus, his apparent goal was simply to be viewed as doing something, especially if it meant doing another stimulus.

Of course, the Democrats' new economic plan -- and the simple admission of needing a new plan just proves their first one was an utter failure -- is going to be much cheaper than the first one...but otherwise exactly the same:

The cost of a new jobs bill Democrats hope to move early next year runs to nearly $300 billion when major proposals under serious consideration are added up.

Lawmakers are calling for extending aid to the unemployed, infrastructure spending, a hiring tax credit and increased small business loans.

A number of the jobs proposals backed by Democrats make up a $230 billion package proposed by Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com, who made a presentation to Senate Democrats Wednesday. The provisions supported by Zandi along with new spending on infrastructure, a favored approach of top House Democrats, would cost between $291 billion and $299 billion, according to estimates by lawmakers and economists.

Aides cautioned that Democratic leaders in both chambers are just beginning to consider what will go into the bill, and that estimates based on standalone bills may not mesh with the final jobs legislation.

Hot Air's analysis:

In other words, we're seeing the exact same approach as the Democrats took in February, which produced nothing but fraudulent "jobs saved or created" numbers and double-digit unemployment.  The proposals would suck more money out of the private sector, expand the debt incurred already by this administration, and keep investors on the sidelines, with the possible exception of the SBA loans program.

The extension of benefits has value, but not as job stimulus, and there is evidence that these extensions are harming job creation.  Including this in any discussion of job stimulation is at least mildly Orwellian.

If Congress wants to stimulate the economy, it needs to stop expanding government and incurring massive deficits.  That means an end to ObamaCare, cap-and-trade, and Card Check, as well as significant reductions in federal government.  That would send positive signals to private capital that they can expect pro-growth policies and predictable tax rates, which would encourage investment and job creation.  They don't need a summit to reach that conclusion — they just need a big dose of common sense.

Here's some of that common sense from a real business (via GP):

The federal government is "doing everything in [its] manpower [and] capability to destroy U.S. manufacturing," says David Farr, chairman and CEO of Emerson Electric Co., in a presentation at the Baird 2009 Industrial Conference in Chicago Ill., on Nov. 11. In comments reported by Bloomberg, Farr added that companies will continue adding jobs in China and India because they are "places where people want the products and where the governments welcome you to actually do something. I am not going to hire anybody in the United States. I'm moving. They are doing everything possible to destroy jobs."

And how 'bout that unemployment rate?  The latest visuals:



And remember, this joblessness didn't just start last fall with the economic meltdown.  No, it began much earlier...like around the beginning of 2007.  And can we recall what other major shift happened in the beginning of 2007?


Thank you, Democrats!  What a wonderful gift you have bestowed upon us American commoners.

And what about that whole 'saved or created' nonsense?  We've documented very well on this blog how the numbers are completely worthless in terms of how many jobs have been 'saved or created', and how there is no metric to even determine what a 'saved' job is.  It's a purely political construct that the Obama administration is using to sell the crock of what they're doing, and their favorite justification is that things would have been soooo much worse if they hadn't done the stimulus.  Well, the CBO puts the lie to that:

Recipients report that about 640,000 jobs were created or retained with ARRA funding through September 2009. Such reports, however, do not provide a comprehensive estimate of the law's impact on employment in the United States. That impact may be higher or lower than the reported number for several reasons (in addition to any issues about the quality of the data in the reports). First, it is impossible to determine how many of the reported jobs would have existed in the absence of the stimulus package. [Emphasis added.].

As any normal person with any shred of common sense had already figured out.

Anyway, since Obama's jobs summit didn't really have solution makers in it, and didn't really talk about any useful solutions, other groups were meeting on the same day to discuss what could really be done to improve the jobs situation in America.  Remember, this is the key, because ours is a consumer-based economy, and if people don't have a job, they don't consume much of anything.  Jobs are the key.  So, here are some of the things they came up with.

Rep. Eric Cantor:

...here are a few commonsense policies that we should pursue.

*First, we must tear down self-imposed obstacles to economic growth and wealth creation. Therefore, Congress and the Obama administration should stop the deluge of detrimental rules and regulations.

*Second, we should agree to block any federal tax increases until unemployment drops below 5 percent. Americans of all political stripes can agree that the government should never raise taxes during periods of high unemployment.

*Third, we need to restore confidence in America's economic future. Record deficits and debt — coupled with runaway spending — have shaken confidence in that future. Many believe that the only solution will be to increase taxes or inflate the dollar, which promises lasting pain for small businesses and working families.

*Fourth, we should reform the unemployment system to help people out of work find jobs.

*Fifth, we need to approve three promising free-trade agreements with Colombia, South Korea, and Panama that have stalled under the new administration. Recently the president stated that increasing U.S. exports by just 1 percent would create over 250,000 jobs.

*Sixth, we must take action to reduce regulatory and tax barriers that inhibit domestic job creation.

*Finally, we must deal swiftly and honestly with the looming commercial real-estate collapse. Congress should move to give bank regulators incentives to deal responsibly with banks and their borrowers.

These are seven simple solutions that don't involve massive new government spending, new bureaucracies, or more debt. They are based on time-honored principles proven to create jobs and ultimately economic prosperity in America.

What Obama is doing is actually preventing jobs from being created:

CEOs are saying as much amongst themselves. At a recent symposium, Intel boss Paul Otellini, a contributor to both parties, expressed concern about the "amount of variability in the system" created by the state of policy flux in healthcare, energy and tax policy. "It is very difficult to make a hiring decision," he said. General Electric chief executive Jeffery Immelt, a strong supporter of Obama's cap-and-trade proposal, added he would just like to "know what the rules are."

All in all, a disturbing replay of the 1930s when FDR's big changes left business reeling with uncertainty and confusion. The "devil you don't know" and all that.

This notion of 'regime uncertainty' in terms of the Great Depression has been documented.  Basically, if a business doesn't know (or have confidence in) the laws that will affect it, it will tend to hunker down and do nothing.  Things like cap-n-tax, DemCare, and tax rate increases obviously have a HUGE impact on businesses of all sizes, so with all of this uncertainty swirling around right now, businesses are playing very conservative.  Thus, they're not hiring, not expanding, and not investing.  As Heritage puts it:

Why has private-sector job creation fallen so sharply? Businesses are retrenching wherever they can, taking measures to survive the immediate downturn such as laying off workers and conserving cash. The policy agenda in Washington–the health care legislation, cap-and-trade legislation, higher taxes to pay for more spending–has also contributed to businesses' unease about the future. Entrepreneurs are reluctant to invest when they fear that federal legislation could make their business projects unviable.

And yet, the Democrats blindly charge forward, expanding government and obliterating all notions of fiscal responsibility and campaign promises along the way.  For example, Congress is moving to raise the official debt limit on its own credit card for the second time in less than a year:

Congress doesn't want you to know it, but they are about to raise the debt limit because they've spent the full $12.1 trillion allowed on their taxpayer-funded credit card.

They're hoping you won't notice because they're trying to sneak the increase into some other "must-pass" measure, such as the upcoming defense appropriations bill. But if you do notice (please do notice because it will be expensive), they are hoping you will forget by Election Day.

Nice.  But it gets worse...the House just repealed the expiration of the death tax:

The House approved Thursday a measure making the current estate tax rate permanent, overcoming the objections of an unusual coalition of liberal and conservative critics. The bill passed, 225 to 200, with 26 Democrats joining all Republicans present to vote no. It would make permanent the current estate tax rate of 45 percent, with an exemption of $3.5 million per individual.

What was that about not raising taxes one dime on anyone earning less than $250,000 a year?  Seems to me this would hit just about everyone who inherits anything from parents or grandparents.

I guess that's part of the reason why people are fleeing the Democrat party in droves now.

For more interesting ideas on how to really stimulate the economy, check out this round table.  The common theme in all of these is pretty simple:
- cut taxes
- stop the uncontrolled spending and government expansion

Sounds good to me.  And gee, hey, howboutthat it would actually work, too!  At least, it has every other time we've tried it...

There's my two cents.

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