Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Some Thoughts On A Gallup Poll

I saw this Gallup poll yesterday, and thought a couple things were worth pointing out.  The interesting thing about this poll is that it was an open-ended poll, where responders were not given specific choices.  These are the things that people thought of off the top of their heads, without prompting.  Keep that in mind as we look at a few of the results:

Response Obama
voters
McCain
voters
Want change/fresh approach 37% 3%
Experienced/qualified 2% 27%
Economy/His economic plan 16% 6%
Nat'l security/terrorism 2% 18%
For the middle/working class 10% 1%
Like his choice of running mate 1% 10%

First, the most obvious: people want a change from what we've got now.  Congress has historically low approval ratings, and people are sick of Washington stupidity and corruption.  Obama has been preaching change for so long that people believe this is what he is about (I disagree, but that's the topic of many other posts, so I won't go into it here).  The point is that McCain needs to get out his more recent message of shaking up Washington much, much better.  He and Palin actually have the track record to back up this message, but he'll need to communicate more effectively if he is to cut that major deficiency.  Look for this to come out a lot more in the upcoming debates.

I think it's very interesting how only 2% of Obama supporters say they support him because he's experienced or qualified without being prompted.  That's a message that he has been trying to counter for months, but has been unable to because every time he talks without a teleprompter he just confirms it all over again.

The things Obama is proposing economically are essentially the things that put us into the Great Depression.  His tax increases and regulations will stifle the American economy faster than Jimmy Carter's did in the late 1970's.  Nevertheless, the perception is that both Obama's economic plan and his general stance is for the working class people.  This is what I mean when I say that McCain needs to communicate his message better.  McCain's plans are far more effective for actually promoting growth and economic expansion, but most people don't understand much about economics.  It's on him to explain things better, and if he can do it, the election might as well be over.  The most obvious example I keep using is that McCain absolutely must reframe Obama's statement that he'll cut taxes on 95% of Americans.  That's an effective slogan -- regardless of its truthfulness -- and McCain has got to get a handle on that.  I can think of two things right off that would do it:

1. Fred Thompson included this in his speech at the RNC: Now our opponents tell you not to worry about their tax increases. They tell you they are not going to tax your family. No, they're just going to tax "businesses"! So unless you buy something from a "business", like groceries or clothes or gasoline ... or unless you get a paycheck from a big or a small "business", don't worry ... it's not going to affect you.
2. Simply ask Obama how he'll cut taxes on 95% of Americans when less than 60% of Americans pay any taxes at all.

As you can see, it can be done, easily, but he's going to have to get out there and do it.


Obviously, the selection of Palin has been absolutely HUGE, and these numbers about the running mates prove it.  Conversely, I think Joe "One Man Gaffe Machine" Biden is causing a serious doubt complex in the Democrat party.

Just wanted to pass these details along as food for thought.

There's my two cents.

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