Thursday, September 25, 2008

Was This A Setup?

Here's a random thought about this bailout deal that is in the works...was this a grand setup between Bush and McCain?  Work with me here to see if this makes as much sense to you as it does to me.

First we have President Bush, who is in the last few months of his second term.  Through his own tax cuts, he understands what stimulates the economy.  He also knows that McCain has to create some separation from himself in order to attract independent voters in the upcoming election.  Despite their past differences, Bush realizes that McCain is a far better option as a successor than Obama, and has no desire to see the White House go back to a Democrat who would undermine much of his progress in the War on Terror and in Iraq over the past few years, which is likely to be one of his biggest legacies.

Now, let's look at McCain.  He knows that change is the mantra of this election, and while he fundamentally agrees with Bush on the war issue, he understands that he needs separation from Bush to attract independent voters who are uneasy with the President's actions over the past few years.  Fundamentally, they also agree on what stimulates the economy, but McCain can't afford to be perceived as a Bush puppet on the biggest issue of the moment.  He also needs to illustrate (vividly, if possible) his leadership ability over Obama's, while at the same time correct the perception that Obama has a better grasp on the economy and how to fix it.

There's the setup.  Now, think about what's happened in the past couple days.  Bush has put forward a bill that was filled with wasteful spending and ugly provisions that were so bad that he knew it would be rejected.  At this point in his Presidency, he has absolutely nothing to lose by proposing such bad legislation, but he still has the power to force Congressional leaders to deal with his proposal through the bully pulpit of the Oval Office.  He sets the table and then allows McCain to come in and spearhead an effort to push through a much more conservative package that will benefit the economy much better than the Paulson plan.  Not only does McCain take the credit for 'fixing' the problem, but he also gets that magical separation from Bush that he needs for the election.  He also appears stronger and more decisive than Obama, and he shows that he understands the inner workings and importance of the economy, strengthening his standing on one of the few issues where Obama polls quite a bit higher.  Bush has already made it clear that he's more than content to do what he thinks is right regardless of how it plays in the polls, so I believe he could care less that McCain can use this as a way to say, 'Look, I stood up against Bush's bailout, and got a deal for something much better".  This would ultimately benefit the Republican party as well as the American people, so in a sense Bush would be taking one for the team.  I think he's secure enough in his accomplishments to let history judge him rather than his contemporaries.

Both Bush and McCain win big, and Obama loses even bigger.

Of course, this is all pure speculation, and would be blown completely out of the water if a deal was truly struck before McCain got fully engaged this afternoon, or if the final plan pushed by McCain isn't much different than Bush's.  But, if it turns out that McCain 'saves the day' and pushes through reforms that were much more conservative in nature than Bush's...well...it just seems a bit too coincidental, doesn't it?

What do you think?  Was this a Bush-McCain rope-a-dope?


Hmmm...

There's my two cents.

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