A look at the polls from over the weekend puts some actual numbers to the major momentum shift we simply felt last week in the presidential race. The USA Today/Gallup poll shows the McCain-Palin ticket up by 10 points (54%-44%) in likely voters. But that's not the only bad news for the Obamessiah - many other polls are showing gains by McCain-Palin, too. Rasmussen shows a 1-point lead, the first lead for McCain in a number of weeks. Other trends are coming out, too, such as higher favorables and lower unfavorables for McCain-Palin, and the vice-versa for Obama-Biden.
Perhaps the biggest signal of change, however, is the RealClearPolitics.com national poll average, which calculates its own results based on an average of the other major polls. Today's polling average shows a McCain lead (1.2%) for the first time since May. And, if you look carefully, all of the polls that show either a tie or an Obama lead have yet to include the post-convention days in their results. And, perhaps even more important, the polls with the biggest leads for McCain are the polls of likely voters versus just registered voters. These are not insignificant details.
So, where does that leave us? It's still September 8th, with about two months before the actual election. A lot can -- and probably will happen -- between now and then, and fluctuations are very, very likely. Don't put too much stock in today's polling data, because it's wrong tomorrow. Polling in general is an inexact science at best, and can really only be used to identify broad trends. Even so, the trends that these polls reveal have got to be making the Obamessiah sweat profusely. I would expect the smears and attacks to ramp up over the next few weeks as the Obama campaign gets more and more desperate. More gaffes and re-definitions are imminent.
This should be fun!
There's my two cents.
Perhaps the biggest signal of change, however, is the RealClearPolitics.com national poll average, which calculates its own results based on an average of the other major polls. Today's polling average shows a McCain lead (1.2%) for the first time since May. And, if you look carefully, all of the polls that show either a tie or an Obama lead have yet to include the post-convention days in their results. And, perhaps even more important, the polls with the biggest leads for McCain are the polls of likely voters versus just registered voters. These are not insignificant details.
So, where does that leave us? It's still September 8th, with about two months before the actual election. A lot can -- and probably will happen -- between now and then, and fluctuations are very, very likely. Don't put too much stock in today's polling data, because it's wrong tomorrow. Polling in general is an inexact science at best, and can really only be used to identify broad trends. Even so, the trends that these polls reveal have got to be making the Obamessiah sweat profusely. I would expect the smears and attacks to ramp up over the next few weeks as the Obama campaign gets more and more desperate. More gaffes and re-definitions are imminent.
This should be fun!
There's my two cents.
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