Israeli Election Update

Israel held its election over the past day (it was actually overnight for us here in the U.S.).  They have a very different system from the U.S. in which there are numerous political 'parties'.  If I understand it correctly, the party that ends up with the most seats in the Knesset then attempts to build a ruling coalition from the smaller parties, and that coalition appoints the Prime Minister, who will lead the country.

It was widely expected that the centrist Kadima party, led by Tzipi Livni, would relinquish control to the more right-wing Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu.  This is significant because Kadima has been held responsible for the failings of the 2006 war against Lebanon and other weak military endeavors against surrounding terrorist states and organizations.  Kadima has also been open to giving away land for (the pretense of) peace, which we know never works with the likes of Hamas and other radical Islamic terrorists.  Likud had been showing tremendous support in the run up to the election, largely on the promise of strong and uncompromising leadership.  Actual results, however, look to be much closer than anticipated.  Here's what happened:

With 99.7 percent of the votes counted in Israel this morning, Tzipi Livni's centrist Kadima party was leading Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party 28 seats to 27. The fact that Kadima earned more seats was a surprise, given that Israel has undeniably swung to the right in recent months—in the face of Hamas attacks, the Iranian threat, and the lack of diplomatic progress with a divided Palestinian body politic.

But in the Israeli political system, the prime minister takes office not when his party gets the most seats in the legislature, the Knesset, but when a majority of Knesset members vote for him. Many parties besides the Kadima and the Likud have representatives in that body (which has a total of 120 seats), and these minor parties will play a deciding role. As a result, Netanyahu will probably be the next prime minister.

To supplement her 28 seats, Livni may be able to woo support from a few other left-leaning parties, but it's unlikely this will put her over the 61-seat mark. This happened once before, in October 2008, when Ehud Olmert yielded control of Kadima (and the Israeli government) in the face of corruption charges. 
 
Netanyahu, for his part, has 27 seats from yesterday's election, plus another 15 from the harder-right Israel Beiteinu. With support from several other small parties, he appears able to hit the 61-seat mark. 

It will be several more days until the final results (including absentee and military ballots) are certified.  It looks like Netanyahu has the upper hand, though his bid for Prime Minister is not necessarily assured.  The Israel Beiteinu party is led by Avigdor Lieberman, who has the unique position of essentially being kingmaker, and though he was a high-ranking official in Netanyahu's previous administration, he is not necessarily a lock to throw his support to Netanyahu.  Another potentially inflammatory aspect of Lieberman is that he has argued that Arabs living in Israel -- due to the increasing disloyalty in recent years -- should lose their citizenship and their right to live in Israel unless they declare their loyalty to the Jewish state.  This could increase tensions in an already tense area of the world.

Joel Rosenberg offers the following analysis:

So who will emerge as the next Prime Minister of Israel? This remains to be determined, but based on everything I'm seeing at the moment it would appear that Netanyahu has the edge, given the size and strength of the overall center-right coalition.

Here's what to watch for:

• Final election results won't be known until February 18th, when all of the absentee and military ballots have been counted.
• After the final results are in, Israel's President — Shimon Peres — is legally mandated to invite the party leader with the best chance at forming a stable government to try to put together his or her coalition within a short time frame.
• If the current results hold, Livni and her team will argue to Peres that they should be given this opportunity because they have won a plurality. However, Peres gave Livni the opportunity to form a government last fall, and she couldn't do it. Even when she asked for and was granted more time by Peres to form a government, she still couldn't accomplish it, even though the Left had far more seats that they do now. Livni's failure to succeed is what prompted these new elections in the first place.
• What's more, Livni's ability to form a center-left coalition has just been dramatically complicated by the fact that Defense Minister Ehud Barak's badly decimated Labor Party has just announced that it will sit in the opposition in the next government, not help one side or the other form a coalition or a unity government.
• Keep your eye on former Avigdor Lieberman and his right-wing Israel Beiteinu party. Theyjust won an impressive 15 seats, though they were expecting to win 20. Still, Lieberman suddenly has quite a bit of leverage, and I expect him to milk his perceived "kingmaker" status for all it is worth. Keep in mind that Lieberman once served as chief of staff (director general) when Netanyahu was Prime Minister in the late 1990s. Thus, he is certainly inclined to help Netanyahu create a strong center-right coalition government. But Lieberman is also an opportunist. He once broke away from Likud and created his own party, critizing Likud for not being tough enough against Palestinian and Iranian extremists. Then he joined the government of Ehud Olmert, and was rewarded by Olmert with the title of Deputy Prime Minister for Strategic Affairs. True, he quit when Olmert's stock was plunging like a rock. Now he is playing footsie with Livni, suggesting he's not opposed to helping her form a government. Personally, I don't buy it. Anything's possible, of course, and we could see a lot of twists and turns on the road ahead. But I think Lieberman is creating leverage to get as much power from Netanyahu as possible. In the end, I suspect Netanyahu and Lieberman will cut a deal together, if for no other reason than for the sake of toppling Hamas and defending Israel from the increasingly imminent threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.

If Rosenberg is right and a Netanyahu/Lieberman coalition takes over, it could mean a higher chance of war with Iran or terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah.  The simple fact that these guys have more spine and are willing to take unpopular stands to protect Israel means the typical saber-rattling by the likes of Ahmadinejad and Hamas suddenly becomes more dangerous.

Given that this area of the world is volatile in the best of circumstances, this is something that bears watching, especially given that Barack Obama has been lukewarm and inconsistent on U.S. policy toward Israel.  If Israel's government suddenly becomes more protective and less conciliatory, it means he may be forced to take a stand one way or the other.  We've seen that Obama would prefer to stand on both sides of every issue, so it could present a problem, especially as Obama is simultaneously trying to reach out and play nice with Iran and Hamas.  If another war breaks out, he'll have to choose one or the other to support, and given his track record and rhetoric, I'm not convinced he'll side with our allies.  Time will tell.

There's my two cents.


Sources:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTgyNTlhNThhMzQ4ODBiNjUxNjQ4NjdhMjE5ZThjOGU
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGQwMTE5YzU0NzU1Nzc4NmE5OThjZDI4ZTU5MmNmMzI
http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2009/02/11/israeli-elections-razor-thin-margin/