Osama Move Over...?

You've probably heard the rumblings about potential increased risk of terrorist attacks over the summer, including Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff's comments about having a 'gut feeling'. You've probably also heard that there are some reports saying Al Qaeda is at or near the strength it was before 9/11. You may not have heard, however, is that Al Qaeda is actively planning to plant cells inside the U.S., or that Iran has recently asked Japan to pay for its oil using yen rather than U.S. dollars. Add to that the general admission that there is increased 'chatter' from terrorist networks, and the picture being painted is a bit of a grim one.

Ali Eteraz, a writer/blogger/activist who knows a lot more about radical Islam than I do poses an interesting theory about the latest Osama bin Laden video to hit the Internet.

He says that this video could mean bin Laden is dead or dying.

There are several reasons for this. The last time we heard from bin Laden was in an audiotape. Why audio? Eteraz speculates that he may have looked too ill to present a sufficiently inspiring video. Furthermore, Zawahiri -- bin Laden's number 2 guy -- has been all over the place over the past few months in videos. This could be a sign that they're trying to signal a passing of the guard from bin Laden to Zawahiri. Eteraz also speculates that the words of bin Laden's recent video (as reported in the AP: "'The happy (man) is the one that God has chosen him to be a martyr,' added bin Laden, who was shown outdoors wearing army fatigues and looking tired.") could be significant. By using scripture he speaks with a higher 'authority', and with the talk about martyrdom, Al Qaeda could be trying to set up a future change in power while also cementing bin Laden's martyrdom and iconic status in the terrorists' eyes. As Eteraz says, however, it's pure speculation until bin Laden actually turns up dead, so take it with a grain of salt. I watched a Fox News segment a few days ago (unfortunately, I didn't get enough info to reference it here) where they talked about the recent bin Laden video, and they mentioned that the repetition in the video was significant - he repeated a warning three times. According to the report, the video was reminiscent of pre-9/11 messages, and the Koran requires such a warning before an attack.

So, could this be the end for Osama bin Laden? There has long been speculation that he was seriously injured in the initial phases of the War on Terror; could he finally be succumbing to those injuries? Could Zawahiri be looking to take over in the next few months? Time will tell, but another major attack would be quite a send-off for bin Laden, as well as a show of force for Zawahiri to take control of Al Qaeda. I just hope and pray that our military and law enforcement continues to do its exemplary job of keeping us safe, and that the politicians will stay out of the way.

There's my two cents.