I heard an interview on the radio this morning with Frank Luntz, who provided a lot of background data for the Contract With America (which swept Republicans into power in 1994). Basically, Luntz is a professional poller and an expert in determining American opinions. I won't try to recount the entire interview, but one point did jump out at me. In response to the question of what Republicans need to do to win back the Congress, he said three things would gain them a resounding following:
1. put an end to wasteful spending (i.e. "earmarks")
2. no amnesty for illegal immigration and secure the borders
3. understand that the war on terror is being waged against us whether we acknowledge it or not, and that it is a clash of civilizations; we need to be prepared for it, and to succeed
I don't know about you, but this seems like the roadmap for success to me! As I've mentioned before, the Republicans have gotten way too spend-happy in recent years; earmarks are out of control on both sides of the aisle. We all saw what happened when Congress tried to provide amnesty - the American people were outraged, so much so that the Senate's phone bank was crashed by all the angry calls. And, I think that most Americans of both parties understand that the War on Terror will be fought; the only question is whether it will be overseas or here at home.
None of the major presidential candidates has encapsulated all three of these issues and communicated them clearly to the Republican base, and that's why there is an overall lack of interest from the base. In poll after poll, the Democrat candidate leads the Republican candidate; although I'm sure there are other reasons, it seems to me that the biggest is the same thing that plagued the Republican party in 2006 - there is no compelling reason to vote for any of the current Republicans. It's more a case of who's the least bad candidate, and that scenario will not win the day. Until someone steps up with a new "Contract With America", I'd say things look grim for 2008. The good news, of course, is that if someone does step into the conservative leadership vacuum, there is no shortage of problems with the recent Democrat party (anti-war, amnesty, lack of action, etc.), and that could potentially translate into a landslide victory for the Republicans.
The victory is there to be had...will anyone go get it? We'll see.
There's my two cents.
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