McCain is planning to use a Reagan video in his introduction to try to continue appealing to this most critical audience. Given the tensions between conservatives and McCain, this does not promise to go over well:
If McCain uses this video, it is very likely to backfire badly. This is the group before which Ronald Reagan said in 1975 that, “A political party cannot be all things to all people. It must represent certain fundamental beliefs which must not be compromised to political expediency or simply to swell its numbers.”That could prove disastrous for McCain's continued push for the GOP nomination, since he cannot win the White House without their support. McCain has a very steep uphill battle, though. First, his record is awfully undeniable, and these are not your average American citizens who pay little attention to politics - the people at CPAC know where McCain stands on their most important issues. If that weren't enough, recall a key part of the quote above - McCain finished dead last in the same straw poll just months ago, and he hasn't gained any friends since then. If he can't do better this year, the entire country will know the conservative voting bloc has backed out, and McCain is unlikely to get it back no matter how many promises he makes.
Very few of the 2008 CPAC crowd will see McCain as the successor to Reagan and Reagan’s principles. McCain has sacrificed conservatives’ fundamental beliefs throughout his Senate career. If McCain uses this introduction, the boos will be very loud.
McCain faces a real quandary. If he fails at CPAC -- and doesn’t win the CPAC straw poll (he finished dead last in 2007) -- the word will be out that the conservatives are off his team this year.
Conversely, the CPAC could be Romney's last best chance for garnering that same support. Now that he is the most conservative candidate left in the race, he needs to persuade CPAC that he is their only option. If they throw their support fully behind Romney, it could provide the boost that he needs to claw his way back into the race. It's a long shot, but probably his best -- maybe only -- option.
Just to give you an idea of how thoroughly divided the party is and how serious some conservatives are about withdrawing their support from McCain, there is talk of 'suicide voters' who would rather see a Democrat in the White House than McCain, even if it means voting for Clinton.
One of the big questions that will be discussed at this convention is 'Is the GOP Lost?'. As Michelle Malkin says, "Having to ask the question answers it, don’t you think?"
Finally, let's take a look at just how critical the conservative voting bloc is. A Time/CNN blogger does some research on the numbers from Super Tuesday, and they are very illuminating, if you know how to interpret them:
TOTAL VOTES CASTSome would say this is proof that conservative voters have lost their clout. In fact, it illustrates precisely the opposite. Democrats are excited about both of their candidates, and came out in huge numbers. Republicans -- especially conservatives -- are excited about none of their candidates, and stayed home. This huge voter discrepancy should be a big, bright, flashing warning sign that McCain has a severe problem without conservative voters.
Clinton: 50.2% (7,347,971)
Obama: 49.8% (7,294,851)
McCain: 43.1% (3,611,459)
Romney: 35.4% (2,961,834)
Huckabee: 21.5% (1,796,729)
For grand totals, vastly more Democrats than Republicans voted yesterday:
Democratic votes for Clinton and Obama: 14,622,822 (63.6%)
Republican votes for McCain, Romney and Huckabee: 8,370,022 (36.4%)
Put another way, the Clinton/Obama race drew 76% more voters than the McCain/Romney/Huckabee race.
He needs us; he won't win without our support. To have any hope of getting our support, he needs to win the CPAC straw poll, which should be announced Saturday afternoon.
This event should be a telling predictor of McCain's chances of winning the general election.
There's my two cents.
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