Imad Mughniyah was assassinated recently. To people who know terrorism, this is an accomplishment on a par with taking out Osama bin Laden, only more difficult to actually get done. Brett McCrea:
To say he had a heightened security posture would be the understatement of the year. He is/was the mythological equivalent of the unicorn, something that has always been talked about but never actually seen. To illustrate this point, most of the pictures Mughniyah were taken very early in his life (his late teens/early 20s... he is now roughly 45). He was vital to Iranian interests in Lebanon because he was someone the Iranians could depend on to execute Tehran's will. He demonstrated that back in 1983 when he orchestrated the Marine Corps Barracks bombing. He was vital to Hezb'allah because of his trusted status with Tehran and the weapons, finance, and training they provided.In essence, he was an important bridge between Iran and Hezb'allah.He is someone the Iranians depended on for over 20 years and the kind of trust and stability he provided to the regime in Tehran and to Hezb'allah in Lebanon will be difficult to replace. Given his senior position within Hezb'allah and the organization's acting as Damascus' proxy in fighting Israel, this would also be a significant setback for Syria as well (not to mention a huge embarrassment to the government, because it happened in their capital).
For decades, he was protected by the Iranian/Syrian governments and Hezb'allah's own considerable intelligence apparatus. His death is an intelligence coup that may not be matched for many, many years to come.
There have been a few times 'Mugsy' was potentially ratted out, but no government who actually wanted him had been able to catch him. The reason? The threat of retaliatory attacks until he was released. France and Saudi Arabia, in particular, chickened out when there was a potential to catch him.
Anyway, what does this assassination mean?
From Hezb'allah's view point, a "red" line has been crossed and the organization will look for vengeance. The most reliable barometer of Hezb'allah's reaction to this will depend if Israel is somehow held accountable for this action. When Israel killed Hezb'allah Secretary General Abbas Musawi in February 1992, the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina was destroyed a few weeks later. This 1992 attack was claimed by Hezb'allah's terrorist wing, the Islamic Jihad Organization, in retaliation for Musawi's death. If Mughniyah is indeed dead and Israel is held responsible, the clock is ticking. Hezb'allah will retaliate for this. Bank on it. If history provides any benchmark, look for a spectacular event in the very near future.
That same day, we got this:
Hezbollah has accused Israel of killing the militant, whose funeral was being held Thursday, but Israel has denied that. The one-time Hezbollah security chief was the suspected mastermind of attacks that killed hundreds of Americans in Lebanon.
The posting also came in the wake of concerns expressed this week by the director of U.S. national intelligence that al-Qaida in Iraq is shifting its focus to attacks elsewhere in the region. Mike McConnell told a U.S. Senate hearing on Tuesday that the terror network "may deploy resources to mount attacks outside" Iraq.
Apparently, it doesn't take long for fingers to start pointing at Israel, though Israel denies taking the action. Now, to Mr. Rosenberg's report. He offers the following observations from a recent trip to Israel:
1. The assassination of Hezbollah terror master Imad Mughniyah in Damascus on Tuesday is a huge success in the war against radical Islamic jihadists. [notes many of the points mentioned above]
2. The threat of a new Hezbollah and Syrian war against Israel has, however, just spiked. "You have crossed the borders," Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said in response. "With this murder, its timing, location and method -- Zionists, if you want this kind of open war, let the whole world listen: Let this war be open...We will do all that takes to defend our country and people." Nasrallah vowed that the blood of Mughniyah "will lead to the elimination of Israel." The Israeli military is on high alert along the Lebanon and Syrian borders, as are Israeli embassies, consulates and government officials around the world.
3. Jihadists in Gaza continue to terrorize the residents of southern Israel while the Government of Israel and the nations of the world do nothing. Updated statistics: since the Israeli military withdrew from Gaza in the summer of 2005, terrorists have fired more than 4,200 rockets, missiles and mortars at the Jewish State.
4. Hamas leaders vow to stand with their Hezbollah brothers in attacking Israel and the U.S.
5. The potential for Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government to collapse continues to grow. Reports in recent days that Olmert's aides are privately negotating with the Palestinians to divide Jerusalem has led some leaders of the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party to intensify their warnings that should Olmert continue in this direction, they will bolt. Their departure would very likely trigger new elections.
6. The recently released Winograd Commission Report was a devastating blow against Olmert personally and his advisors.
7. Likud Party officials are increasingly confident Israelis are ready for change, and want to put them and their leader Benjamin Netanyahu back in government. "The Second Lebanon War was a failure and the ultimate responsibility for this failure lies with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert," Netanyahu said in a speech to the Knesset. "The responsible parties are the prime minister, the defense minister and the chief of staff." The Jerusalem Post noted that regarding Olmert's claim that he had to remain prime minister in order to fix the flaws revealed during the war, Netanyahu likened it to "giving the captain of the Titanic, if he would have survived, another ship to sail."
Good info, from a world-renowned expert who was just there, on the scene. You may ask yourself why this matters? Well, I think there are a couple reasons. First, there's the prophetic nature of it. I know that not everyone believes in the Biblical prophecies of future wars and such, but I do. If you haven't read Rosenberg's book, Epicenter, do it. Now. You'll gain an understanding of why the Middle East is so critical to human events all over the globe. Any war with Israel would have major, major significance, especially if those opposing Israel include a few key nations (Iran, Russia, various Arab states). For me, this is the biggest reason to be concerned with what happens there.
If you're not into the prophecy aspect, there are still plenty of reasons to keep an eye on it. The big one is oil. Obviously, any turmoil and chaos in that region affects many of the world's biggest oil producers, and would likely affect the price of oil and gasoline. There is also the consideration of nuclear war. Of the nine known nuclear nations, three are located right there (Israel, Pakistan, and India), two more are actively engaged in military maneuvers there (U.S. and Britain), and two more are arms suppliers of nations there (Russia to Iran, North Korea to Syria). France used to be a partner with Iraq under Saddam Hussein, and is probably still heavily involved in the area; given China's current consumption and production explosion, they have a vested interest in oil-producing nations, as well. It's a ticking time bomb as tensions rise, with nuclear ramifications.
So, just because it's on the other side of the planet, don't think it doesn't affect you. These events will affect all of us, so we need to be aware of what's happening.
There's my two cents.
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