Huckabee won the Alabama primary, but Gary Palmer, president of the Alabama Policy Institute and a pro-family conservative leader in the state, suggests there is general dissatisfaction with all of the candidates:
"The bigger story of primary day in Alabama, and probably around the rest of the country -- particularly among conservatives -- is that they really don't think they've got a candidate," says Palmer. "Practically everyone that I've talked to [said] if they could have voted for none of the above, [they] would have."
He goes on:
Palmer says there is still major conservative dissatisfaction with the GOP field. "There's kind of an angst over McCain. There's a distrust of Huckabee; many view him as a Republican version of Jimmy Carter -- except he's conservative on the social issues. And there's just not a real base for Romney," adds Palmer. "I don't know if it's that they perceive him to be a liberal who has become conservative for convenience sake, or if it's the fact that he's a Mormon."
There is also a general consensus that McCain is at his most conservative while on the campaign trail, making promises on a daily basis. Charles Hurt, the New York Post's DC Bureau Chief, says it this way:
[I]f history is any guide, the McCain we've seen of late on the campaign trail is the most conservative McCain we'll ever see. He has taken a commanding lead in the GOP primary by packaging himself as the "true conservative" committed to limited government, to slashed federal spending and to an avowedly conservative Supreme Court. He claims the mantle of Ronald Reagan. He even claims the mantle of Barry Goldwater, conservatism's crack version of Reagan.
But as McCain clinches the GOP nomination, he will begin his usual leftward lurch. He will return to his lifelong positions as soft on illegal immigration, skeptical of tax cuts and favoring strong federal control over things like campaign financing. McCain's appeal to independents and even the left is what makes him such a powerhouse in the general election. It is also precisely what has so many in the Republican base so wildly fearful of handing him the keys to the kingdom.
While some are saying that the race isn't over -- which is, technically speaking, true -- McCain has over 600 primary delegates (of the 1,191 needed to secure the nomination), Romney has 266, and Huckabee has 190. Romney would essentially have to run the table to win, and given the fact that most Rep money will now flow toward McCain, he'll be footing almost every penny of his continued campaign. Still, McCain didn't deliver a knock-out punch, so there is a small question mark remaining.
Some general thoughts that should be kept in mind when considering future elections:
- polls and exit polls were very wrong again:
- Hillary was 'inevitable', Obama would lose his momentum; BUT... Obama did much better than expected, and Hillary didn't pull away at all
- The Rep race would drag on for a long time --> it's McCain's race to lose now
- the Clintons and Kennedys both showed a surprisingly lackluster amount of clout
- "Reps for Choice" endorses McCain, even though he's 'pro-life'
There are a lot of explanations being tossed around for what's going on in the Republican party, but here are a couple of the more logical theories.
Why did Huckabee do so well in the South?
First is proximity: he's from the South (Arkansas). Also, the evangelical vote for Huckabee was huge. Rush Limbaugh suggests that there is a growing similarity between blacks and evangelicals. The Democrat party has traditionally done nothing of substance to actually help the black population (rather, their policies have almost completely destroyed the black family), but blacks continue to vote for Democrats because the Dems continue to make promises that sound good. The Republican party, on the other hand, has for years obtained the support of evangelicals based on promises of opposing abortion, gay marriage, and the general moral depravity in the country, despite not actually doing much to change things. Hm...a very interesting theory. It dovetails into the next question...
Why the general disillusionment?
The Republican turnout was quite a bit less than the Democrat turnout. The obvious answer to why is that the Dems have two candidates that they like, and are excited about the upcoming election. The Reps, however, don't like any of their choices. Specifically, the conservative core base of the party doesn't like any of the choices. This division has been clear for months, and is bearing out in the actual voting. Conservatives, in particular, are also completely ticked off at Republicans who run on conservative principles and then make a hard turn left once they get into office (like McCain, Governor Schwarzenegger, etc.). Huckabee, for all his weaknesses, has a strong history on the things that social conservatives value: abortion, gay marriage, family values, anti-IRS, etc. It could be that these social conservatives voted in higher than expected numbers for Huckabee because they wanted a guy who actually had a history of standing for their issues, even if he doesn't realistically has a chance to win in the general election.
The ironic part of this is that if Huckabee really had the interests of the evangelical conservative base at heart, he would be attacking the candidate who has pledged to oppose abortion and gay marriage amendments: McCain. Not Romney.
Conservatives also get ticked off when people like McCain have no problem 'reaching out' across the aisle to work with Democrats far more than they work with members of their own party and their own constituency. As I've blogged about before, 'bipartisanship' has come to mean 'Republicans/conservatives give in', so what's the point of supporting them anymore? Thus, they stayed home. It happened in 2006, and looks increasingly likely to happen again in November.
One last article to leave you with for now. John Judis writes at The New Republic about who actually won yesterday. McCain isn't carrying his own base. Excerpts [emphasis mine]:
McCain blunted Mitt Romney's challenge, but he failed consistently to win over conservative voters. But McCain continues to depend on moderate, non-evangelical Republicans for his victories. In California, conservatives made up 62 percent of the primary electorate; McCain only won 30 percent of them. In Tennessee, 73 percent of the voters were conservatives; McCain won 22 percent. In Missouri, 65 percent were conservatives; McCain won 25 percent. In these states, McCain failed to win a majority of Republicans. And he might face a revolt of these conservatives in the fall. They won't vote for a Democrat, but they might not vote at all.
One group that is clearly dissatisfied with McCain are Republican evangelicals. In Tennessee, which Huckabee won, 73 percent of the primary voters described themselves as born-again Christians. McCain won 29 percent of these voters. In Missouri, 54 percent of voters described themselves this way; McCain won 24 percent. The other group that doesn't like McCain is Republicans who think illegal immigration is the most important issue. In California, 30 percent of the Republicans thought it was; 23 percent voted for Republicans; in Tennessee 25 percent thought it was the most important. Only 21 percent went for McCain. It's not clear how McCain can win these voters over.
This may be a bit foolish, but I'll make this prediction now (with big a caveat for huge world events like catching bin Laden, a downturn in Iraq, major economic events, etc.): if McCain wins the nomination, either Democrat will beat him in November. He isn't likely to win back the support of the very base he snubs on a daily basis, and he doesn't appear to have any real comprehension of just how much opposition there is to him within his own party (only 75% of the Republican voters yesterday were actually Republicans). Either of the Dems will carry the majority of right-leaning Democrats and Independent voters. I think he'd do better against Hillary than Obama because of her baggage, but not enough to change the outcome. The Republican turnout will be smaller than usual, and that means McCain will get crushed.
Take it for what it's worth.
There's my two cents.
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