Well, the results from last night's primaries are in, and Barack Obama has secured enough delegates to take the Democrat nomination. Whew, what an ugly slugfest! I have a number of observations to make, and I'll try to be as brief as possible, but I want to share with you how I see the political landscape shaping up.
First thought: isn't it amazing the stunning irony of the fact that the man who supposedly transcended race to unite the country is being heralded all over the place as the first African American candidate from a major party to get the nomination after one of the most divisive races in recent memory? It's just the final exclamation point to the undeniable reality that Barack Obama is not the candidate who transcends race, but rather the candidate who embodies race. If you look at the demographic analysis from most of the later primaries (after information about his associations with obvious race-baiters came out), you'll see that the vast majority of blacks are supporting him, and the vast majority of whites are not. That alone should tell us something.
It was a scenario that played out vividly in several of the last primary states (including South Dakota yesterday, where Clinton won easily), and should be a huge warning sign to the Democrat party as it gears up for the general election: Obama doesn't have the support of whites, especially from the working and middle classes (which are traditionally very Democrat). He also struggled mightily with women voters, another typical Democrat stronghold. He won't win without better penetration into those groups. Another thing to watch out for - if he becomes President, the race issue will only get bigger. Any criticism leveled at Obama or his policies will immediately be attacked as being racist or somehow linked to race. Rather than eliminating race from the national conversation, an Obama presidency will only magnify it. Just wait, it'll happen.
His Republican opponent, McCain, will likely peel off a good chunk of typical Dem/Indie voters with his 'maverick' schtick and his well-known history of jabbing his finger in the eye of his own party and its conservative base. This history will give him street cred with a lot of moderate Democrats and Independents, but McCain has his own problems. His base has largely deserted him, and is going into convulsions about whether he would be much better than Obama. More on that in a moment.
So, where do we stand with Hillary Clinton? She hasn't conceded yet. It seems she's holding out for some negotiation or other, but exactly what she wants isn't clear. There is some noise about the VP spot, but it's a certainty that Obama doesn't want her. Not only does she hold ambitions for his office, but she comes with baggage: the hyper-narcissistic former President Bill Clinton, who is still looking for his own legacy. It's a safe bet that if Obama accepts Hillary as VP, it'll be more of a threesome than he wants. She may end up getting a major cabinet appointment or something like that; I've even seen one suggestion that she may be bucking for the Supreme Court. If that doesn't send shivers down your spine, nothing will! Anyway, I've also seen some rumors that Kansas Governor Kathleen Sibelius is in the running for VP. That would be great for Kansas since it would get rid of her, and her big-government pro-abortion views seem to fit pretty well with Obama's, so it seems like a reasonable choice. It will be very interesting to see who Obama goes with, and what Hillary's end game is at this point. She may still be waiting on the as-of-yet-rumored 'whitey' video to surface. We'll see.
Similarly, McCain's VP choice will be a huge indicator on how he thinks he can win in November. If he chooses a die-hard, no-question, true-blue conservative like Bobby Jindal, he'll almost certainly pull most of his base back into the fold, and be in great shape for the general election. If, however, he chooses someone more moderate like Joe Lieberman, it'll be the final flip-off to his conservative base, signaling that he is cutting ties with them in an attempt to reinvent the Republican party as a moderate big-government party. While he might still win the White House with that sort of campaign, it will really split the party in the long run.
For Republicans (and especially conservatives), this election isn't going to be pretty no matter who wins. The reality is that the Republican leadership has squandered every single advantage they had gained over the past 12-14 years by going the way of a Diet Democrat party (we'll be big-government, too, just not quite as big as the Democrat party). This gets very little support because those who want a full-blown nanny state are going to vote Democrat -- why go half way when you can go all the way?? -- and those who want the opposite are extremely disillusioned with the consistent negative compromises the GOP has made. So, it is very likely that the Democrats will gain control of both houses of Congress, perhaps with large margins. If that happens, it really won't matter who the President is because Congress can dictate whatever they want with veto overrides and filibuster breaks. This is actually, in many ways, more important to consider than the Presidential race.
Given the assumption of a Democrat-controlled Congress, it is very likely that this country will race to the Left after November, enacting policies that are very, very Left-leaning, even if McCain becomes President. The truth is that perception is often reality in politics, and that McCain doesn't differ all that much policy-wise from Obama. Even on the issues where there are noticeable differences, Congress could override him. As such, many Republicans (including me) are seriously questioning what a President McCain would do for them that a President Obama wouldn't. Rush Limbaugh threw out the idea months ago that any of the candidates would do serious damage to the American economy (which is always the key issue), tanking the nation like Carter did in the late 1970s. If that happens, he reasoned that it would be far better to have a pure Democrat-led government do the tanking so that the nation would soundly turn away from Democrat ideas and leaders the first chance they got. As Limbaugh put it: it took a Carter to get a Reagan. We may have to go through a few dark years to get the kind of sea change we need in order to usher conservatism back into power.
It's the question of throwing a battle to ultimately win the war that I've mentioned before. My concern, in this particular election, is that if we throw this particular battle we may not be able to come back and win the war. I wonder if things like universal health care, broad illegal alien amnesty, and liberal/activist Supreme Court judge appointments could alter this country enough that we can't circle back around. We might. I honestly don't know.
This is the question that we'll need to answer before we go to the polls in November.
So, there's the latest election update, and the November political landscape as I see it. Take it for what it's worth - about two cents. :)
No comments:
Post a Comment