Another Oil War?

Russia appears to be provoking another conflict with Eastern Europe over oil.  Hillbuzz posts a report from the U.K. Telegraph:

As temperatures dropped below zero across much of Europe, the Russian prime minister instructed the head of Gazprom: "Cut it - starting today."

The cut was ordered to punish neighbouring Ukraine, which Russia accuses of topping up its own gas supply by siphoning off energy meant for European consumers and sent through its pipelines.

But Naftogaz, Ukraine's state-run gas company, said that it was European Union countries, including Britain, that would feel the effects of an increasingly bitter East-West energy row.

"Gazprom has in fact cut volumes of transit gas to European customers. The Russian company has therefore placed under threat the delivery of gas to European countries," Naftogaz said in a statement.

The EU meanwhile dispatched an emergency fact-finding mission to Ukraine after eight European countries reported a disruption of gas supplies following a smaller Russian cut last week.

The taskforce of senior officials from the European Commission and the Czech Republic, which has just taken over the EU's rotating presidency, will also hold crisis talks with Gazprom on Tuesday.

EU foreign ministers, meeting in Prague on Thursday, will then assess levels of gas supply disruption and discuss possible action to prevent energy shortages amid sub-zero temperatures in most European capitals.

EU countries are dependent for one quarter of their gas supplies on Russia, of which 80 per cent comes via pipelines that cross the Ukraine.

Some, such as Poland, depend on Gazprom for over three quarters of their gas supply. Britain receives up to 15 per cent of its supply from Russian sources, mainly channelled through French pipelines.

Now, Hillbuzz offers some analysis that is pretty persuasive, and more than a little bit intriguing:

Today is January 5th. Russia cut gas supplies to the Ukraine on January 1st. Europe depends on Russian gas for 1/4 of its energy needs (while some European countries, like Poland, depend even more heavily on Russian gas and will not make it through the winter safely without it).

After Putin pulled this same stunt in 2006, Europe started storing gas in reserves — that will only last 3 weeks, tops.

Let's do that math: 3 weeks = 21 days.

21 days after January 1st is roughly a day or two after Obama takes office.

So, Putin has engineered a serious energy threat to hit NATO allies while the Hope-Change crowd's still hung over from the most expensive, lavish, and decadent Inauguration ever produced. When people like Leon Panetta, who has no intelligence experience, are nominated by Obama to lead the CIA and other experience-requiring arms of our geopolitical team…and when people like Samantha Power, the most naively dangerous woman in the world, lurk somewhere in the shadows encouraging the "let's hug it out" approach to dealing with Russia that Obama displayed in August when Russia invaded Georgia (don't worry, the World of Coke is fine).

Putin wants to take back the Crimea so the Russian naval base there is secured once and for all. Blackmailing Europe in the dead of winter with halted energy supplies in the opening days of what Putin perceives to be the weakest American administration ever installed is classic KGB gamesmanship.

Obama's Care Bear stare won't have the same effect on Russian grizzlies that it had on Chris Matthews, the rest of the American media, and his throngs of glassy-eyed followers — none of whom are paying any attention to the Ukraine and Russia's imminent invasion.

This idea of Russia using the EU pipeline as a means to conquest has been predicted here (here and here, for example), so it's no big surprise.  And, sadly, the fact that Obama is relying on inexperienced people who don't appear to have a clue is also no big surprise (he is one himself).  I just hope his change doesn't lead us to another war with a nuclear Russia.

Pay attention...

There's my two cents.