First off, the big prize today is California. Obama and Romney are pulling away there, depending on which poll you look at. John J. Pitney Jr. writes about several reasons that will affect the outcome:
1. mail-in voters --- many Californians use absentee ballots to vote early, meaning they voted for candidates who are no longer in the race
2. delegates, not the 'win', is what counts --- CA awards delegates based on winning a precinct, which means a precinct with 8,000 voters nets as many delegates as a precinct with 80,000 voters, and Romney appears to be utilizing this strategy very well; Democrats are awarded on a different basis (see the article for details) which could mean winning the most votes doesn't win the most delegates
3. Indies --- Independents can vote Dem, but not Rep (this could hurt McCain and Obama)
4. Dem demographics --- CA is heavily Latino and elderly, both of which lead toward Clinton
5. Rep leanings --- though Schwarzenegger leans very hard to the left, most CA Reps lean much more to the right, which should help Romney
6. endorsement folly --- Schwarzenegger's endorsement of McCain doesn't matter one little bit
Scott Rasmussen says that Obama has 'all the momentum' going into Super Tuesday.
Melanie Morgan, the big mover behind the CA recall of former Governor Gray Davis, expresses concerns about McCain's conservative credentials. Excerpts:
Immigration is the foremost reason why conservatives part company with John McCain. McCain's campaign partnership with a former spokesman for Mexico's president sends a clear message that a President McCain would welcome anybody who busts into our country illegally instead of sending them home. It is a scary, dangerous position. McCain-style open-border policies would allow terrorists, already known to cross our porous borders, to walk in without challenge.
Immigration, of course, isn't the only McCain position that fires up conservatives. McCain-Feingold restricted First Amendment rights. Then there was the McCain-Kennedy education fiasco. As a conservative, I flinch anytime I hear of a new piece of legislation that begins with the name McCain.
Voters rallied around Republican-led efforts to throw Davis out of office. One of the biggest motivators was his support for driver's licenses for illegal aliens.
We got rid of Davis, but then came time for choosing from 28 other candidates on the ballot. The GOP loved state Sen. Tom McClintock, the principled conservative with a proven track record of reform, but instead chose Arnold Schwarzenegger because of their concerns about McClintock's 'electability.'
What did California get for the big 'win'? A 14 billion dollar deficit, his advocacy for business-crippling regulations backed by the phony junk science of man-made climate change, and bad policy on, you guessed it, illegal immigration.
Is it a coincidence that Arnold Schwarzenkennedy endorses John McCain?
Conservatives oppose McCain because of the long-term damage done to the party by his defining it as a pro-amnesty, environmental extremist, high tax, high regulation, and liberal judge party. As conservatives we can not endorse this.
Ironically, at the end of Schwarzenkennedy's first administration, the California State GOP is broke. In debt. And with no future viability for perhaps decades to come.
John McCain may very well do the same for the Grand Old Party if he is our next nominee.
A number of GOP Senators are hesitant to embrace McCain as their commander in chief. Take a look:
"There would be a lot of people who would have to recalibrate their attitudes toward John," said Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah), a supporter of Mitt Romney's who has clashed with McCain.
"I forgive him for whatever disagreements he has had with me. We can disagree on things, but I have great admiration for him," said Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), a senior member of the Appropriations Committee who has often argued with McCain over government spending.
A former colleague says McCain's abrasive nature would, at minimum, make his relations with Republicans on Capitol Hill uneasy if he were to become president. McCain could find himself the victim of Republicans who will not go the extra mile for him on legislative issues because of past grievances.
"John was very rough in the sandbox," said former senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), who is outspoken in his opposition to McCain's candidacy. "Everybody has a McCain story. If you work in the Senate for a while, you have a McCain story. . . . He hasn't built up a lot of goodwill."
Santorum was a fierce advocate for the GOP's social conservative wing -- a group particularly hostile to McCain because of his apostasy on immigration and same-sex marriage -- while Cochran is considered one of the more genteel senators. Both men back Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, for president.
"The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine," Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), also a senior member of the Appropriations panel, told the Boston Globe recently. "He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me."
Same with the House:
McCain's relationship with House Republicans has been strained for years. After stumping for more than 50 GOP candidates during the 2000 campaign, McCain dramatically scaled back his efforts in 2002 out of pique toward House Republicans who opposed his effort to overhaul campaign finance law. In 2004, while McCain was objecting to GOP-backed tax cuts, then-Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) suggested that the senator, a former prisoner of war, should go to Walter Reed Army Medical Center to see what "sacrifice" meant to the nation.
Other major voices, like Rick Santorum and Rush Limbaugh, continue to endorse Romney over McCain.
Mike Huckabee is expressing frustration with some conservatives' call for him to bow out of the race to allow Romney the best possible chance against McCain. While his frustration is understandable, so is the electorate's...Huckabee doesn't have much of a shot to actually win the nomination.
The Washington Post predicts 8 questions that will be answered on Super Tuesday, including what constitutes victory.
The general consensus seems to be that the Democrat race is likely to stay fairly even after Super Tuesday, while the Republican race could be much, much clearer. Don't accept a rushed victory coronation by the MSM in any state (especially CA) - we know they want McCain to win, so they'll jump all over any indication of that as soon as possible. Just be patient, and let the votes be counted. No matter what, don't let any news report deter you from going to vote yourself.
Let the fireworks begin!
There's my two cents.
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