Iran's Nuclear Program Exaggerated

In a momentous and surprising report, new intelligence indicates that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003. Though the program has been on hold for several years, it is possible that Iran could enrich enough uranium to create nuclear weapons by 2015.

Though this is likely to cause a great deal of difficulty in implementing further sanctions on Iran, it is most certainly welcome news for the rest of the world. This is a huge surprise for the entire world, who thought Iran was on the brink of nuclear weapons (largely due to their own boasting).

A couple of thoughts to ponder:
1. Is America's intelligence really that bad?! Did they completely miss the fact that Iran halted its nuclear program for four long years? That should be very disturbing to every American!
2. The timing of this development needs to be examined. Let's see...what else was happening just before the fall of 2003? In the spring of 2003, the United States led a multi-national coalition into Iraq, toppling Saddam Hussein's regime in just a few weeks. You don't think that would have provided some major disincentive for Ahmadinejad to pursue a similar program to Saddam's do you?

I'm sure we'll learn more about this new report in the coming days, so hopefully the analysis will become more clear in time. Something else that crosses my mind, though, is disinformation. Is this report 100% accurate? If it's not, are the inaccuracies deliberate? It seems more than possible to me that this is an effort to throw our potential enemies off by revealing an incorrect picture of what we 'know' about their capabilities. Or, it could also be an attempt by Iran to throw us off their true progress. In the shadow world of intelligence, it's hard to know anything for sure.

The near future should prove to be very illuminating.

There's my two cents.

***UPDATE***
Israel isn't so sure that Iran put its nuclear program on hold. Even if they did, the question of the day is why. Did they purchase the technology and equipment to make a nuclear weapon, so they no longer needed to figure it out on their own? They're still using centrifuges and creating nuclear material, so why would they do that if the program was really done? Regardless, Bush is right when he says that Iran is still a danger.

A couple other thoughts I've heard bouncing around:
- If this report is true, shouldn't that be a win for Bush on the diplomacy side of things? We haven't attacked yet, so it had to be diplomacy!
- Just because an enemy takes a break, that doesn't mean we should all relax and go home. We need to continue to ensure that Iran doesn't get nukes in the future, which means continued international pressure.