NIE/Iran Update

The skepticism of the recent NIE continues to grow. Just the latest example is an investigation into another one of the NIE authors who has a history of trying to hinder Bush administration international policies, especially in regard to nuclear weapons.

The icing on the cake is that the skepticism is now not only on the conservative side of the spectrum. The L.A. Times reports that even the political center and left is questioning the idea that Iran stopped its nuclear program.

There's something to keep in mind here - this report that 'Iran stopped its nuclear program' is only part of the story. There are three critical pieces of a nuclear weapons program:
1. uranium enrichment (creating the nuclear fissile material)
2. delivery system (i.e. long-range missiles)
3. weaponization (making the bomb work with the missile)

The controversial NIE claimed that Iran stopped only the weaponization part of their program in 2003. We know for a fact that they are continuing to work on both of the other parts because they've been boasting about it for months. Think about this - they're aggressively working on two of the three parts, and have been trying to buy all three pieces for years. Could it be possible that -- if it is, in fact, true that Iran stopped the weaponization piece and hasn't picked it back up yet -- they have successfully completed that third phase and no longer need to work on it?

To me, the implication that they are no longer working on one of these pieces of their nuclear program actually means a bigger potential danger than if they were still striving for it!

The fact is that almost no one believes this NIE report in full, and many think it is an outright work of fiction due to a political grudge. The problem here is that even a false report presents a huge obstacle in garnering international support for sanctioning Iran and preventing them from completing their nuclear ambitions.

There's my two cents.