Monday, June 15, 2009

Iranian Election Update

You've probably seen this in the headlines - it's big news, and the entire world is watching.  The short version is that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad supposedly won the 'election' in Iran, but his opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi cried foul and claimed the election was stolen, with election results planted before the election even took place.  As is Muslims' typical reaction to most things, mass protests have ensued, prompting widespread violence in the form of beatings, arrests, and even reports of shots fired and deaths amongst the crowds.  Ahmadinejad apparently banned Mousavi from protesting in public, but Mousavi ignored the ruling and led as many as 1 million Iranians in a huge statement about what they think of Ahmadinejad's leadership.

Basically, the Iranian people are desperate to escape the brutal and thuggish leadership of the mullahs (religious leaders), and although Mousavi isn't really much of a change, he is at least a little more moderate than the crazy armageddon-seeking A-jad.  But, recall that the people of Iran really don't have any meaningful say in the 'election', anyway - whoever Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei wants as President, that's who it's going to be. 

So where is the U.S. on all this?  Unfortunately, Barack Obama has continued voting present on very consequential issues:

US officials today said they would not accept Ahmadinejad's victory.
Then later today they already announced they would negotiate with the corrupt killer regime anyway.

Patterico offers this additional analysis:

The seemingly stolen Iranian election (though by whom remains an open question) is a reality bomb that exploded in the faces of the Obama administration, and much of the Left. If this was a Chuck Jones classic, their faces would be blackened and hair blown back in a spiky mess, in the grand tradition of Daffy Duck or Wile E. Coyote.

After floating the fanciful notion that Obama's outreach was remaking the Muslim world, they have been caught flat-footed:

A senior Obama administration official who did not want to be identified or quoted explained that the president was deeply conscious of appearing not to favor any side in the election. Officials had ruled out calling for a recount or a revote out of a concern for undermining the Iranian opposition. The official said it was important to have a policy toward Iran that advanced the administration's desire for liberalization and human rights in Iran, not one that merely vented American outrage at Ahmadinejad.

Courageous Iranians face death in the streets for "reform" that was marginal at best, while Obama is trying to vote "present," and the Euroweenie Union rolls over. The Germans have sounded a bigger alarm than the Man From Hopenchange. The US government refrains even from strong statements supporting free and fair elections, for fear of undermining the dissidents. This mode of thinking overlooks that Ahmadinejad's thugocracy will deal with their opponents as they see fit, and blame the Great Satan whenever it suits them, regardless of what the US says or does. Indeed, Obama's silence has not stopped Ahmadinejad from publicly planning a purge of his rivals.

The Obama administration sees approach this as part of their foreign policy realism:

[T]he primary concerns the White House has about Iran are not about free and fair elections. The concerns are: Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support for terrorism.

"We have to deal with the Iran that we have rather than the Iran that we wish we had," says the official.

Obama's immediate problem is that the naked power grab ongoing in Iran has exposed to even the casual observer that "the Iran we have" is the Iran we have always had. Obama's larger problem is that still seems to hold the notion that he can "deal" with Iran in the sense of "engagement," even after the reality bomb has detonated. In a Chuck Jones cartoon, the effects of a bomb tend to vanish in the next scene, but things do not work that way in the real world. The notion that Iran's policies are a function of US policy generally, and US diplomacy in particular is not foreign policy realism; it is foreign policy unrealism. Until Obama figures that out, events will keep exploding in his face.

On a related note, Israel's new Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, recently offered a speech that subtly but significantly changed the direction of this talk of a two-state Palestinian/Israeli agreement:

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Sunday that he is willing to support the creation of a Palestinian state, for the first time making a commitment that the United States, Europe and the Arab nations have pushed for since he took office.

But in a prime-time address delivered at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, he attached a weighty list of conditions dictated by his personal beliefs and by the need to satisfy his right-leaning coalition in the Israeli parliament: The Palestinian state would have to be demilitarized, with international guarantees that it remain so; it would have to cede control of its airspace to Israel; and it could be created only if the Palestinians recognize Israel as the Jewish homeland.

This is huge because Netanyahu and the right-leaning coalition in Israel have so far been reluctant to agree to a two-state solution.  This speech constitutes a major concession to that idea, but it also throws down the gauntlet in terms of proving whether Palestine (and its radical Muslim backers like Iran) want a Palestinian state, or just the elimination of Israel and the Jews.  It's no mystery to anyone who understands what the Palestinians and radical Muslims are all about, but it's still a shrewd political move.

Here's another update (excerpts) from Joel Rosenberg that touches on both subjects:

First, the results prove that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei firmly, completely and whole-heartedly supports Ahmadinejad's End Times beliefs. Khamenei also fully supports Ahmadinejad's commitment to build nuclear weapons and long-range, high-speed ballistic missiles. What's more, the Supreme Leader supports Ahmadinejad's public commitment to destroy Israel and the U.S. to hasten the coming of the Mahdi.

Second, the results prove that the people of Iran never had a real choice. This wasn't a real election. It was totally and completely rigged by a Radical Muslim mafia, a police state without justice or compassion for those enslaved. The aftermath became, as one Iranian noted over the weekend, a Tehran Tiananmen. Protesters and dissidents were beaten, arrested and tortured. Text messaging was turned off. Facebook was shut down. The internet was down or slowed for vast stretches.

Third, the results prove that the Obama administration's belief that you can sit down and have a rational discussion with such Radicals — or trust an agreement even if one could be negotiated with them – is absolutely nonsensical. How could we possibly trust the Iranian leadership to keep a promise to stop building nuclear weapons (if such a promise were made), when they steal elections and beat and torture dissidents in front of the whole world? The Obama administration should treat Khamenei and Ahmadinejad as pariahs now. The White House should praise the young people of Iran, the pro-democracy forces in Iran, the forces of freedom in Iran. And the President should condemn the Iranian government has totalitarian theocratic thugs, not offer to engage them. Not offer them concessions. Not reward such evil behavior.

Fourth, as for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech, he is right: Iran is the real threat to the region and the world, not Israel's refusal to make more land for missiles concessions to the Palestinian leadership. Bibi's assessment of the current Iranian regime is spot on, while the White House's assessment has been exactly wrong. The real, existential threat to peace in the epicenter is Iran's death cult leadership and their feverish pursuit of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them, not the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Netanyahu was right to smoke out the real intentions of the Palestinian leadership and the Muslim leadership as a whole in the region. By agreeing that there could be a Palestinian state and then defining one that would truly be peaceful, Netanyahu shrewdly shifted the terms of the debate.

Fifth, we need to pray for peace, but prepare for war.

These are critical world events that will affect every man, woman, and child alive today.  Pay attention.

There's my two cents.


Sources and Related Reading:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090615/wl_nm/us_iran_election
http://minx.cc/?post=288519
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/06/madness-obama-administration-silent-as.html
http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2009/06/13/netanyahu-vs-ahmadinejad-a-major-war-is-the-likely-outcome-of-the-iranian-elections/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061400741.html
http://patterico.com/2009/06/15/iranians-detonate-reality-bomb/
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/06/15/did-iran-concoct-election-results-before-the-election/

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