Thursday, June 18, 2009

Spinning Madly Over Jobs Numbers

The AP is doing another mad spin over the latest batch of unemployment numbers:

The total number of people on the unemployment insurance rolls dropped for the first time since early January, the government said Thursday, while new claims for benefits rose slightly.

The Labor Department said the total unemployment insurance rolls fell by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the week ending June 6, the largest drop in more than seven years. The decline is a sign that layoffs are easing.

The drop also breaks a string of 21 straight increases in continuing claims, the last 19 of which were records. A dip in continuing claims several weeks ago was later revised higher.

The department also said initial claims rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 608,000 last week, above analysts' expectations. The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell by 7,000 to 615,750. Continuing claims data lags initial claims by one week.

The drop in continuing claims could signal a slowing in the rise of the unemployment rate, which reached a 25-year high of 9.4 percent in May. Many economists forecast the rate could reach 10 percent by the end of the year.

This is really quite an impressive string of convulsions.  They're running at a rate of almost 1ff/pg (flip-flop per paragraph):

The total number dropped despite new claims rising.
A dip representing a break in the string of record increases, even if the last dip was later revised back up.
Claims were lower despite being above expectations.
This is a sign of recovery despite many economists predicting worse things to come.

I feel like I'm watching a tennis match with AP playing on both sides of the net.

Hey, AP, why don't you just call Obama and get a room?  At least then the rest of us wouldn't have to watch your blundering courtship.

There's my two cents.

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