Conservative Dynamics

Rush Limbaugh does an excellent job of breaking down the 'fracture' among conservatives. Here's my paraphrase of his basic idea. There are three basic pieces of the conservative platform:
1. Social
2. Economic
3. National Security

Right now, most of the social conservatives are supporting Mike Huckabee; most of the economic conservatives are supporting Mitt Romney, and most of the national security conservatives are supporting McCain. The left sees this split as the end of conservatism, but that is a short-sighted understanding of what's happening.

In reality, the problem is that there is no single candidate who is drawing large numbers of conservatives from more than one of those pools of voters. As we've all been saying for months, there is no slam dunk CONSERVATIVE candidate in the GOP this time around, and that means there is no broad support for any one candidate. This division amongst the conservative wing of the Republican party has allowed the 'establishment' Reps to drive the agenda, and that means bigger government, more spending, and some other things that lean farther to the left than is normal for the GOP. This is why the party is in disarray - the establishment Reps are more or less the Diet Democrat party, and with the conservative base sorting out our own mess at the moment, there is no countering voice.

At this point, it is totally unrealistic to think that Huckabee will actually win the nomination, even if he wins a handful of states in the south. Overall, he's nowhere close in the national polls. As such, a vote for Huckabee in the remaining primaries is essentially a vote for McCain. This is a message that Romney must get out before Super Tuesday if he wants to take back some momentum.

This idea is being reflected locally, too. Missouri Governor Matt Blunt said the same thing publicly, and encouraged people not to 'waste' their votes on Huckabee. Blunt supports Romney as the strongest conservative left in the race.

Looking at past GOP presidential races, the one backed by conservatives hasn't always won. But, no Republican candidate has won the White House since 1980 without it.

Hopefully this gives you an idea of the dynamics at play here.

There's my two cents.



***UPDATE: I have to issue a partial retraction on my statement that no Rep candidate has won the White House without conservative support - I misread the quote I was referencing, and have not been able to find another one to clarify the statement. I think it's safe to assume, however, that the conservative portion of the Republican base is significant, and any GOP nominee would be hard-pressed to win without it.