Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Today's Results

Michigan is done, and here's what happened (with 89% of precincts reporting):
Republican
Mitt Romney -- 38.9%
John McCain -- 29.7%
Mike Huckabee -- 16.1%
Ron Paul -- 6.3%
Fred Thompson -- 3.7%
Rudy Giuliani -- 2.8%
Uncommitted -- 2.0%
Duncan Hunter -- 0.3%

Democrat
Hillary Clinton -- 56%
Uncommitted -- 39%
Dennis Kucinich -- 3.8%
Chris Dodd -- 0.7%
Mike Gravel -- 0.4%
So, what does this mean? Well, I'm sure we'll get a ton of professional analysis in the coming days, and I'll relay the major points to you as they happen. Based on predictions and statements made earlier in the day, it seems that at least a couple conclusions can be made.

First,
Mitt Romney is the big winner here. Not only did he win, but he won big. That was exactly what he needed, not only for the reduced number of primary delegates, but also for the publicity bump that he'll get. Second, McCain is in trouble. He failed to follow up on his NH victory, and Michigan was his best chance. He'll likely keep going downhill as more conservative states have their say. Third, Giuliani's strategy seems to be working - the first three states have had three different winners. If the pack stays pretty close and he can put up big numbers on Super Tuesday, he's in the race big-time. Fourth, Huckabee is still a strong contender, but keep in mind the states that have weighed in are fairly liberal. He'll likely do well in the South, but will struggle through the Midwest and on the coasts.

Now, for the rest of the pack. Thompson pretty much skipped Michigan, so it's no surprise he didn't do well. He has clearly focused his sights on South Carolina, and really needs a great finish there. Ron Paul probably got about as much as he's going to get in any state. He adds color, but isn't a serious contender. Duncan Hunter needs to drop out. I think he's probably the guy I most closely identify with, but if he can't even beat the 'uncommitted' voters (and it wasn't even close), he needs to pack it in. It's just not happening. He needs to throw his endorsement to one of the other candidates and try again in a few years. With better name recognition, he could have a serious future in big-time politics.

Nothing worth commenting on the Democrat side - Hillary won, but she was the only name on the ballot. But, it doesn't matter since Michigan has no primary delegates to win. Whoopty-doo.

So, there you have it. I'll let you know if the

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