McCain Wins Florida

McCain won Florida's Republican primary today with 36% of the vote. Romney came in second with 31%, Giuliani third with 15%, and Huckabee came in fourth with 13%.

So, what does this mean?

I'll relay more in-depth analysis in the coming days (we get a breather until Super Tuesday next week), but the initial conclusions are as follows.

- McCain is definitely the front-runner now, with all of the momentum
- Giuliani, who staked his entire strategy on winning Florida, is done, and expected to endorse McCain
- Huckabee may hang around a while longer, but is essentially out of the running

Florida Governor Crist and Senator Mel Martinez both endorsed McCain in the past couple of days, which likely tipped the scales in McCain's favor. Giuliani's forthcoming support for McCain probably won't prove significant in the long run, since they're a natural match - both men are strong on national security and spending, and liberal in everything else. McCain and Giuliani were fighting for the same voters, anyway, and the conservatives in the party weren't likely to support either in large numbers.

Huckabee may end up in a position similar to that of John Edwards on the Democrat side - a distant third place, the place sometimes referred to as the 'kingmaker'. This is key because with even 10-15% of the vote, Huckabee's endorsement could tip a balanced contest between McCain and Romney one way or the other, probably in exchange for a cabinet position in the new administration. If nothing else, that may be reason enough for Huckabee (and Edwards) to hang around until the end.

A couple of other factors to consider. First, the good news is that turnout is generally very high. More voters means a more accurate voice from the American people, and that's always a good thing. Second, it sounds like there may have been some improper voting going on here, too. As a closed primary, only people who had been registered as Republicans should have been allowed to vote on the GOP ticket. But, as early as this afternoon, stories began coming out about registered Independents being given GOP ballots by confused poll workers who didn't want to risk turning away any voters. And, we all know who draws Indie voters: McCain. Take it for what it's worth...

Ultimately, what this means is that the GOP field has been narrowed down to two main candidates: McCain and Romney. Next Tuesday will likely result in a clear victory for one of them, with a Huckabee endorsement being a major victory and possible deal-winner.

More to come in the next few days.

There's my two cents.