The New Hampshire primary was won by Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Read both articles for lots more analysis and details, but below is a summary for you. McCain was expected, as discussed yesterday, but Hillary Clinton seemingly came out of nowhere to beat Obama, proof that these predictions are simply wild guesses, and that by riding the tidal wave of the moment people often predict/guess very badly.
Republican
"My friends, I'm past the age when I can claim the name 'kid,' no matter what adjective precedes it," McCain told an ecstatic crowd [in Manchester]. "But tonight, we sure showed 'em what a comeback looks like. When the pundits declared us finished, I told 'em, 'I'm going to New Hampshire, where the voters don't let you make their decision for them.' "
Romney came in second, which the press is saying is a devastating loss, but Romney said that his two second-place finishes to different winners shows he's the most well-accepted candidate across the country. That seems like a valid interpretation to me, although it's obvious he could have used a win much, much more. Issues drove the choices here, with immigration voters going to Romney 3-to-1 over McCain, but with national security and experience voters going to McCain in large numbers. Huckabee took third, Giuliani fourth, Ron Paul fifth, and Fred Thompson sixth. Thompson has pretty much ignored NH, and is already embarking on an extensive bus tour of South Carolina, a state he figures to do much better in.
Democrat
"Over the last week I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice," Clinton (N.Y.) said at her victory rally, embracing a newly emotional campaign style that appeared to fuel her turnaround here.
Oh, pu-lease! Gag me with a wooden spoon...! After 35 years of experience (remember, she's been repeating that mantra over and over for weeks now) in politics, is she seriously saying that she's just now found her voice?! Hillary is a total fake, and New Hampshirites fell for it.
"For most of this campaign we were far behind, we always knew our climb would be steep. But in record numbers, you came out, and you spoke out for change," Obama said after publicly congratulating Clinton. Before his remarks were finished, he had already started looking ahead to the next two contests.
Make no mistake about it - Hillary may once again claim to be the 'inevitable' candidate, but Obama is the real deal, and is generating real interest. I think he's in it for the long haul, and will give her a serious challenge.
So, what do I make of all this? Well, once again, take it with a grain of salt -- due to my (total lack of) years of political experience and training -- but I think two things trumped here: the spirit of New Hampshire voters is pretty independent, so they leaned away from the so-called front-runners. Also, I think they wanted something familiar rather than something new, which is why they went with Clinton and McCain. By the way, McCain won NH in 2000 when he was running against Bush, so it would have been a surprise if he hadn't carried the state.
Once again, I would caution haste in making judgments about the overall race at this point - it's still simply too early to make any realistic predictions, and anyone who does so is really just guessing. Part of the reason for that is that the leading (in national polls) Rep candidate, Giuliani, has pretty much conceded all of these early contests, instead working hard in a number of the larger states that come up in a few weeks. Like I mentioned with Hillary yesterday, he's banking on being able to lose states 1-4 if he can win most of states 5-15. It's a new strategy, and it will be interesting to see if it works. Regardless, once we get to the first 'Super Tuesday', we'll actually have enough results to start making some educated guesses about where things are going and who's looking good. Once again, it's great that both of the first states have garnered record numbers of voters. The more that happens, the more likely we are to get a President who actually represents the American people, and that's what we all want, right?
Now you're up to speed!
There's my two cents.
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