Thursday, August 28, 2008

Disaster! Woe! Misfortune! (Part 2)

In the continuing trend of disastrous economic news, Fox Business (hat tip SK) reports that the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of this year:

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product, or GDP, increased at a 3.3% annual rate in the April-June quarter. The revised reading was much better than the government's initial estimate of a 1.9% pace and exceeded economists' expectations for a 2.7% growth rate.

This is the best growth period since last spring, when we saw 4.8%.  Sure, there are still problems with oil prices (which could be resolved if the Democrats would stop blocking the all-of-the-above energy plan the Republicans have been proposing for months) and the housing market (which could also be solved by Congress stopping all their stupid bailouts and letting people reap the consequences of their own decisions), but the economy is still growing at a very solid rate.  That is the key thing to understand.

Speaking of the economy, Jack Kemp and Peter Ferrara write one of the absolute best encapsulations I've yet seen on the economic policies of McCain and Obama.  There's a ton of meat in this, so please take the time to understand it.  This is probably the central issue in the November election, so this is the most important issue on which you need to understand the candidates' positions. (emphasis mine)

Obama has proposed increases in every major federal tax. He has proposed to increase individual income taxes, with the top rate to rise to almost 40 percent. He has proposed to increase the top capital-gains tax rate by 33 percent. He has proposed the same for the top tax rate on dividends. He has proposed to increase payroll taxes, with a rate increase of 16 percent to 32 percent for workers earning over $250,000 a year. He has proposed to reinstate the death tax (estate tax), now phasing out under current law, with a top rate of 45 percent. He has proposed several increases in corporate taxes, including a so-called windfall-profits tax on oil.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell has written that if such tax increases are adopted, the U.S. economy will suffer "a deep recession, a nosedive," and the dollar will decline further. Amity Shlaes, author of "The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression", claims Obama has proposed the exact same policy mix that led to the depression of the 1930s. During the primaries, Obama railed against free trade, proposing even to renegotiate free-trade agreements with our top two trading partners, Canada and Mexico. He has opposed the Columbian Free Trade Agreement, even though it primarily removes tariffs on American exports to that country, with barriers to Columbian exports to America already almost all removed under the Andean Trade Preferences Act.

In sharp contrast, McCain has promised tax cuts to promote economic growth and strengthen the U.S. dollar. The federal corporate tax rate today is 35 percent, and McCain suggests cutting it to 25 percent. This would mirror rates elsewhere: The average corporate tax rate in the European Union was slashed from 38 percent in 1996 to 24 percent by 2007. The rates in India and China are lower as well. American companies are not going to produce more jobs and higher wages with this crippling competitive disadvantage.

McCain also proposes immediate expensing for capital investment, which means that capital costs can be deducted in the year they are incurred, like all other business expenses, rather than spread over many years under arbitrary depreciation schedules. And making the Bush tax cuts permanent, as McCain has pledged to do, would leave the top individual income tax rate at 35 percent, and the capital gains and dividends tax rates at 15 percent, while eliminating the death tax. He would also double the personal exemption for children and other dependents to $7,000.

McCain proposes as well to abolish the Alternative Minimum Tax, originally adopted to ensure that a small number of the richest Americans pay at least some tax. Because it was never indexed for inflation, today it increasingly imposes sharp tax increases on the middle class in the highest-tax states. Since it was never intended to be a big tax increase on the American people, McCain argues it should be eliminated. McCain also pledges to ban taxes on the Internet and on cell phones, consistent with his longstanding record.

McCain also promises to maintain his longstanding support for free trade. He favors the Columbian Free Trade Agreement, and pledges to repeal the 54-cents-per-gallon tariff on sugar-based ethanol, as well as sugar import quotas, which should help to lower prices for gas and food.

I'm glad this is one of the biggest issues of this election, because it is one of the issues on which McCain is vastly stronger than Obama.  But it doesn't stop with taxation.  Spending is also worth noting (emphasis mine):

Obama promises to use his tax increases for a raft of new spending programs, estimated to cost almost $1.5 trillion over the four years of a presidential term, and quite possibly more. These include national health insurance, a new global war on poverty costing $65 billion per year in increased foreign aid, $150 billion to put people to work building new "green technologies," $72 billion more for education, $60 billion for an "energy plan," $60 billion for a new National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank, and $14 billion for a national-service plan. Obama proposes as well to increase "assistance to state and local governments so that they don't slash critical services like health care or education." He also says, "I'll double spending on quality after-school programs."

McCain proposes to strictly limit overall spending, pledging to balance the budget by the end of his first term. He proposes a one-year freeze on all federal discretionary spending outside of defense and veterans benefits, and to limit overall federal spending growth to 2.4 percent, about one-third the average annual increase since 2000. He promises to reclaim the money committed to earmarks, eliminate broken, ineffective government programs, reform procurement policies to cut wasteful defense spending, and "veto every pork-laden spending bill and make their authors famous."

Both would support so-called green legislation, though McCain would expand oil drilling and energy production in order to reduce costs, while Obama has made no such statements.  In fact, he has said that high prices are good for the environment.  Also:

McCain has also pledged a revival of nuclear power, which would also sharply increase energy supply. He would seek 45 new nuclear plants by 2030, and 100 new plants over the long run. Obama says, "there is no future for expanded nuclear power without first addressing four key issues: public right to know, security of nuclear fuel and waste, waste storage, and proliferation."

McCain needs to hammer these differences home big-time.  He has so far been riding on his national security cred, which is good, but he needs to start working in the economy in every speech and every appearance.  Americans are sick and tired of overspending by this worst Congress in history (their 9% approval rating shows it in spades), and McCain needs to capitalize on that.  Obama and the Dems are sitting ducks, not only with the stark differences in spending and restraint, and that can most easily be seen in forcing a vacation while Americans pay high prices at the gas pump.

If McCain can tap this issue effectively, we could be looking at a Republican landslide in November.  We can hope so!

There's my two cents.

No comments: