Fascinating Election Updates

Well, well, well...we have some very interesting bits of election information out there today.  When looking at polls, it is critical to understand who is being polled.  There is a big difference, for example, between the preferences of 'Americans' versus the preferences of 'registered voters' versus the preferences of 'likely voters'.  Generally speaking, the most reliable measure of what the actual election will be (and it's all an estimate, of course) is the 'likely voter' category since they are the ones most likely to be involved in politics, both in terms of keeping up with the candidates and with making it a priority to vote in each election.  That's why the latest Reuters/Zogby poll has probably shaken the Obamessiah campaign to its core:

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

The key phrase is 'likely voters'.  This is not a generic poll of an unnamed Democrat and an unnamed Republican, or even a poll of registered voters.  It is a poll of likely voters, who are probably more plugged in than most others.  Some more details:

McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.

McCain has been on the offensive against Obama during the last month over energy concerns, with polls showing strong majorities supporting his call for an expansion of offshore oil drilling as gasoline prices hover near $4 a gallon.

Obama had opposed new offshore drilling, but said recently he would support a limited expansion as part of a comprehensive energy program.

That was one of several recent policy shifts for Obama, as he positions himself for the general election battle. But Zogby said the changes could be taking a toll on Obama's support, particularly among Democrats and self-described liberals.

Notice that McCain (and the Republicans) have taken the side of the vast majority of Americans on this issue - instead of dealing with energy, the Democrats went on vacation.  That was a bad move, and as it becomes more widely publicized, it's going to hurt even more.  Also, the fact that Obama has come around is perceived as simple political expediency.  Sure, you could make the argument that McCain did the same thing several months ago, but the difference is that McCain did it before it became a popular idea, and Obama is only doing it now, after the tidal wave of support has dragged him along with it.

Perhaps most importantly is the in-depth analysis of the erosion of Obama's support:

The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters.

"There were no wild swings, there isn't one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board," Zogby said.

Obama's support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which had been one of his strengths, slipped 12 percentage points to 52 percent. McCain, who will turn 72 next week, was winning 40 percent of younger voters.

Something that strikes me in this is that all demographics are falling off their support of the Obamessiah...except one.  The black vote is still hanging with Obama at rates over 90%.  How is it that we're not supposed to vote against him because that would be racist, but that blacks can vote for him without being similarly racist?  Barack Obama is the candidate of race, and these numbers bear that out.

So, what should we make of all this?  First and foremost, keep in mind that this is still a poll, so take it with a grain of salt - the election is not over until the actual votes are counted, and anything can still happen.  Still, as I've said before, polls are useful for identifying trends, and this trend is definitely a stark change from the MSM narrative.

McCain is gaining ground on the strength of several key issues, including the energy production battle, the economy, and national security.  More recently, Obama has taken some severe hits on his abortion record which have made even normal pro-choice Democrats uneasy.  To top it all off, Obama is really fouling up his responses.  He appears to be losing his composure a bit:

"Our job in this election is not just 'win,' although I'm a big believer in winning," Obama said during the rally. "I don't intend to lose this election. John McCain doesn't know what he's up against."

"He can talk all he wants about Britney (Spears) and Paris (Hilton), but I don't have time for that mess," Obama said.

Why is he even addressing these charges (that he's a celebrity like Spears or Hilton), if they're false?  He's responding because they resonated with the American public...because they're true!  Also, when a candidate digresses into statements that sound an awful lot like threats, that's not a good sign.  In fact, it also sounds whiny, and that not only turns most people off, but it also makes him look weak, and that's an impression he's already trying (and failing) to overcome.  He also has to continuously insist that he loves America and displays patriotism, when his record leads people to believe otherwise (much more on that here, both in the post and in the comments).  When you have to insist it, that means people aren't buying your goods.  Here's a quote from a recent speech to veterans in regard to the Iraq war:

"These are the judgments I've made and the policies that we have to debate, because we do have differences in this election," Obama told the veterans. "One of the things that we have to change in this country is the idea that people can't disagree without challenging each other's character and patriotism. I have never suggested that Sen. McCain picks his positions on national security based on politics or personal ambition. I have not suggested it because I believe that he genuinely wants to serve America's national interest. Now, it's time for him to acknowledge that I want to do the same.

"Let me be clear: I will let no one question my love of this country," Obama said to applause.

John McCain's response:

Yesterday, Senator Obama got a little testy on this issue. He said that I am questioning his patriotism. Let me be clear: I am not questioning his patriotism; I am questioning his judgment. Senator Obama has made it clear that he values withdrawal from Iraq above victory in Iraq, even today with victory in sight. Over and over again, he has advocated unconditional withdrawal regardless of the facts on the ground. And he voted against funding for troops in combat, after saying it would be wrong to do so. He has made these decisions not because he doesn't love America, but because he doesn't seem to understand the consequences of an American defeat in Iraq, how it would risk a wider war and threaten the security of American families. I am going to end this war, but when I bring our troops home, they will come home with honor and victory, leaving Iraq secured as a democratic ally in the Arab heartland.

That's a fantastic response!  All of these things are steadily eroding Barack Obama's favorables and increasing his unfavorables.  McCain isn't necessarily gaining those losses, but it appears that more and more people are simply falling into the undecided category, and that helps McCain.  The reality is that whoever can tap that category -- either candidate -- could very well win in a landslide.

One more note, just to prepare you.  Gallup tells us that candidates normally experience about a 5-point bounce from their convention.  You can pretty much count on any noticeable increase in polling after the Dem convention being trumpeted by the MSM as the Obamessiah getting back on track or some other such thing.  What will be more indicative than that is if there is little to no bounce, or to see what kind of a bounce McCain gets the following week.

Just something to keep your eyes on.

There's my two cents.