The Great Veepstakes

As we (finally!) draw near to the conventions, both candidates are preparing for their first 'Presidential' decision: selecting their Vice-President.  I will not even presume to be able to read the tea leaves on who each candidate will select, but I will report to you what I'm hearing as far as credible rumors go.

Barack Obama
The leading contenders for Obama's Veep are Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine.  Briefly, as I understand things, here's what each candidate would bring:

• Biden: experience, especially on foreign policy
• Sebelius: would help soothe disgruntled women voters, would also look bipartisan since she's a Dem governor of a very red state
• Bayh: would put Indiana in play
• Kaine: experience, would put Virginia in play
  

I keep hearing rumors about Hillary, and although she would bring a great amount of credibility and experience, I can't imagine either side going for that ticket.  Interestingly enough, I've also heard a few mentions of Caroline Kennedy, who is Obama's chief Veep vetter.  This would not be unprecedented, since I've heard that's how Dick Cheney got in with Bush.  However, the difference there is that Cheney had a very long track record in Congress and other positions in government, while Kennedy has zero experience and just her name to rely on.  One of the biggest problems Obama has is that he cannot be overshadowed by his Veep.  So, while he really needs someone to shore up his weaknesses (foreign policy, the economy), he can't pick someone that would be too much more qualified than him.  That kind of a person is tough to find.


John McCain
McCain's top-rumored picks are Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Democratic vice presidential pick in 2000 who now is an independent.  Here's the rundown on these guys:

• Pawlenty: he's a safe pick, fairly middle of the road
  
• Romney: has already been thoroughly vetted, is well known, has great economic knowledge and great experience, would put Mass. into play
  
• Ridge: good experience, would draw Dems/Indies with his pro-choice position
  
• Lieberman: strong on war, would help emphasize McCain's 'maverick' rep
  

Other rumored names include Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal or Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, both of whom are outstanding conservatives, but I don't believe either has expressed much interest in the position.  McCain's pick will be especially indicative, since it will likely set the tone for his entire presidency (if he wins, of course).  If he picks a conservative, he could very well rally his eroded base; if he picks a non-conservative, he will be signaling that he has permanently written off that base.  A particularly interesting choice is Ridge, who is a well-known pro-choicer.  McCain came off well in the recent Saddleback event because he allowed his conservatism (yes, there is a bit of it in there) to shine through proudly and unapologetically.  In particular, the abortion issue is a big one for that conservative base, so if he turns around and picks a pro-choicer for his Veep, he will obliterate the support he just gained, and likely drive the values voters away from him for good.  Another consideration is that if McCain picks Lieberman, it will be a clear signal that he is not at all interested in building the Republican party back into majority status; if he wanted to do that, selecting Lieberman would be exactly the wrong message.  There's also been some talk of McCain pledging to be a one-term President, which is an interesting thought.  It could very well attract Dem and Indie voters who are disillusioned with Obama, and it could really rally his base with a good conservative VP pick, but it would also make him a lame duck President from day one, and with a likely Democrat-controlled Congress, he will accomplish very little.

This is all speculation, of course, but it's interesting to think about.  While it is true that the top of the ticket is the majority of the reason people vote the way they do, the VP selection can be very useful for establishing to the base the tone of the President's time in office.  The primary thought when considering a VP, though, is simply this: if something happened to the President, would the VP be able to step up and lead the nation?  In the case of McCain, he is healthy, but he is also over 70 years old, and if I'm not mistaken that would make him the oldest man elected President in U.S. history.  Who would be his best replacement, not only policy-wise, but also through the simple ability to lead the country in a time of turmoil?  That's the question that we need to ask about the VP selections.

So, there's a nutshell of the Great Veepstakes.  We should know in a few days who Obama picks, and McCain is planning to announce his choice on August 29th.  As always, stay tuned for analysis when it all happens!

There's my two cents.